Replies to post #2797 on China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (fka CCME)

[RyanW439]

You shouldn't have shorted in the 9's.. Did you see the new institutional ownership today? Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley....if I were you I'd stop doing the napkin math and start covering my shorts.

[soulstealer]

Given what Justin said on CGS board, if CPM is basically number of times ads are shown, this can considerably change depending upon number of tv's in a bus. In their photos from presentation I saw 4-6 tv's per bus. If we go with 3 and a CPM rate of 10 RMB which is probably fair that should do it right?

[Drexion2004]

So all we need for the math to work out is for the premium airport-bus segment to charge the same CPM as their competitor VISN does for its regular segment... 26rmb CPM in Beijing, links below:


Here is one source from an analyst report:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/28455512/CCME-Analyst-Report

VISN's CPM in Beijing is 26rmb.

From a more direct source, VISN itself:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzgyMTc4fENoaWxkSUQ9MzgyOTExfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

Page 14.

It confirms 26rmb for Beijing CPM. Funny enough, the rate is much much higher for Ningbo, Wuxi, Suzhou, and Nanjing.

-Fernando

[v80alue]

CCME,

Your viewer calculation is flawed.
1. It takes about one hour for passenger to reach destination. So every hour passengers SWITCH to a new group. You need at least factor of 16 for daily passenger volume.
2. Bus load is typically 85-90%. remember sometimes it is over 100%.
3. They charge premium for holidays or special event. Guanzhou is to be the host of Asia game. Likely they will get premium on AD rate. in a word CPM is just a starting point.