Replies to post #219571 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[EZMONEY36]

Krom - Do a Spreadsheet on AKPO after the first wells were drilled and deemed Non- Commercial and do a one now with proven - even though it has more wells to develop in the future and the spreadsheet will change again.
I think that would be neat to see.

[bayfisherii]

Krom,

Exactly how did you calculate your probabilities, did you use baysian statistics, multivariate disciminate analysis, linear regression, limit theory, were you able to develop a normalized pool of data, or did you pull these out of....the air??

Bay

[DegenerateGambler]

Krom, instead of going through all those mental gymnastics with your spread sheet all you had to do was go to BETONANYTHING.COM and check on the "odds" posted there. You will find the "true" odds listed for Sinopec to announce going forward with Phase 2 on or before Sept 15 listed as 3 to 5. Indicating there is a 60% chance that will happen. However, note that there is a date associated with the bet, so if a delay of any sort is announced, you will lose the bet. The "line" or probability that Sinopec will announce going forward with Phase 2 by the end of the year is 3 to 4, indicating a 75% chance that it will happen by the end of the year. As you can see the market has somewhat factored in the Phase 2 announcement and even if there is a positive announcement the shareprice will only hit the 50s. Much more important is the NSAI numbers and/or the actual drilling results being announced.

Next time just check on BETONANYTHING.COM first, those bookies really know the true odds.

Ps: The bookies do NOT have an African calendar.