Replies to post #1449 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[Elmer Phud]

Bonefish -

this is quite possible - hammer may very well not live up to those expectations. Such with many things. So have you put your short in? You seem to gleefully point out all the problems with AMD, so let us know when you're shorting, when you're going long. Anything else is just 20/20 hindsight chin-wagging of yours.

You're not being fair to AMD's engineers. Management committed AMD to develope products based on unrealistic expectations. The plan was based on doing battle with Intel. It was never intended to enhance shareholder value. The intention was to do harm to Intel and nothing more. That was the goal all along. In a last gasp "hail Mary" AMD chose the Hammer as their spearhead against the evil empire. It was an all or nothing thing. Remember the move, "a Bridge too far". Well AMD just went "a Design too far". Everything had to align just right. Their SOI process, the new design, the 9 metal layers, the Stars, you name it. The chance to really do real damage to Intel was just too irresistable to Jerry and he bet the Farm on a real longshot. Don't blame AMD for not executing on a ill conceived plan. Blame the idiot who planned it.

EP

[wbmw]

Bonefish, Re: Also, this Ruiz guy apparently dunno what the heck's going on.
Someone their pulled the wool over his eyes. He even went out and bought AMD shares. Only to find out he'd been lied too about what AMD could deliver.

That amazed me as well. I was long on AMD until they announced the Hammer slip. That's when I bailed out at just over $8, even though it was a loss for me. My position was entirely based on the possibility that AMD would deliver on Hammer, and that the performance could possibly be enough to stop Pentium 4 from gaining market share at AMD's expense.

When AMD announced the Hammer slip, there was no reason for me to hold on to the shares any more. They dropped from $9.50 down to $7.50 in the matter of a day, and like I said, my sale was close to the bottom. I was glad to get rid of them, and figured that the shares might drop even further.

It was then that news came in that Hector was buying shares. I couldn't believe he'd put his own money on the line, but when it was confirmed, I took it as a bullish sign. Over the course of several purchases, Ruiz was putting several hundred thousand dollars on the line. I was beginning to regret my hastiness, since as a result, AMD stock had climbed above the $10 mark.

I know that AMD is a volatile stock, and even without Hammer, there was the possibility of other plans coming together, and perhaps people's assumptions about AMD were pessimistic after all. Not so, apparently.

Shortly afterward, AMD warned, and the stock took a nose dive farther than it ever had before. I had no intention of shorting at the time, but I'm sure whomever was holding short positions at the time must have been very pleased with themselves.

Rather, I stood in shocked amazement as I started piecing together what must have gone horribly wrong for AMD to warn such a huge loss, especially with Ruiz having bought shares only a short time previously. It's a mystery that I have not yet found a plausible explanation. The only thing that seems to fit is that Ruiz is incompetent, and completely blind to the financials of his own company, not to mention operations.

As unbelievable as it sounds, Ruiz may have had the wool, as you say, "pulled over his eyes". That's a very bad sign for AMD, and with their current trickling of bad news, I expect more to come. I think AMD will once again disappoint at their earnings conference, and post an even bigger loss than what First Call is estimating. It could be pretty bloody.

I think it's relevant to bring it up on the Intel forum, simply because it means that Intel's strongest competitor is close to having to call it quits. If AMD ever does go bankrupt, imagine the ease in pressure on INTC's ASPs, their margins, and their schedules. Eliminating AMD would make a recovery for INTC stock be right around the corner. I think it's worth considering that possibility.

wbmw