With the board stacked with FOH (friends of Harvey), the staggered board may be more of an issue to a potential buyout than the poison pill. Shareholders would need to replace the majority of the board but Ariad has 3 director classes with only 2 directors up for election each year - so it would take two years to gain board control. To make it even more difficult, I don't believe Ariad shareholders have the ability to call a shareholders meeting in order to overide/speed up the process.
I agree with you. However, I think we can get to a share price higher than $15 per share but I don't think thats a sure thing. It is contingent upon positive events taking place. I also agree that $100 per share is not in the cards and not at all reasonable given our current fact set. That goes for the $65 poison pill price as well. I'd prefer to not be taken over and get to a share price somewhere in the 20s but if someone offered me $15 for my shares today before all the events are solidified I'd take it because a bird in hand is worth two in the bush or something like that :) The only thing I would disagree with you on is the calculation of market cap. Fully diluted at $100 per share the market cap would not be $130 billion. I haven't done the calc myself but something more along the line of $13 billion sounds about right. I think you added one too many zeros.
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