Same here. Deflation...MASSIVE deflation is what I lean towards as well in the short to intermediate term. The government inflates the money supply through credit. With no banks lending money...with housing prices set to crumble even further...with credit card companies lowering existing credit limits etc...the money supply is contracting much faster than the government is creating it.
I did a little research and what I came up with as a most likely scenario is the government will try to inflate the money supply...probably for a few more years...by attempting to get it to folks through credit. When that fails (because they can't create it fast enough) they'll likely go the other route which is actually printing money in a massive way. That's when hyper-inflation may occur.
For now it seems the dollar is destined to strengthen for awhile. One thing I remembered is when EVERYONE believes something will perpetually go down (or up), that's just about when it changes direction since there's no one left to sell it short.
I believe we do not have to worry about inflation for awhile in a massive way (hyper-inflation). As soon as Time Magazine has gold on the front page, that'll be the end of the gold bull market as well.
With that said, I reserve the right to change my mind several times. LOL
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