I don't know what you do for a living, buffet, but I have to assume that it doesn't involve forecasting in anyway
You write "...revenue projections are guesswork. This is nothing new. Projecting revenue is guesswork in all cases...even when concerning with a company like IBM. At least this is so for those outside of a company staff.
No.
Anyone that knows the industry they are in, or are following, can make knowledgable estimates of market share, revenue per subscriber, total available market, market growth, % of ARPU for data, etc., and thereby come up with fairly good estimates of projected revenues.
In the wireless industry (which I am in) the ARPU (Average Revenue per Unit) is fairly well known for most operators areound the world.
In the PC industry, those that follow it can tell you how many units IBM or Dell or Toshiba or Gateway will sell, the gross margins and market shares.
The same goes for the automotive industry, airline, oil, services, you name it.
The trusted computing market is about 18 months away from that sort of visibility, in my opinion (some would say half that).
Soon there will be a body of knowledge that will allow the guesses become 'estimates' and then, later, 'forecasts'.
The 'actuals' would be the 10-q or 10-K that then are compared against the forecasts, and if you were an employee of Wave responsible for the forecasts, you would have to rationalise any variances.
So...
For now they are wildly inaccurate 'guesses'.
Soon (9 - 18 months) they will become somewhat more accurate 'estimates', and when the industry is mature, hopefully there will be the info available to create reasonable 'forecasts.
Cheers! (I do this -- forecasting -- as part of my job. Don't assume I don't know what I am tallking about)
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