The informed I refer to are ones that Kobiashi says should know that it takes many years and many wells before we really know what we have. To me he is implying without doubt that we are crazy to sell because we have oil but we just can't know it yet. Personally I don't agree with this. I think SNP has a pretty good idea by now what they have.
Second I'm also a believer in great news is hard to contain. Just look how rapid most were ready to jump on the great news Mark was spewing. News leaks out or at least general "feelings" do and people tell people (the informed) and people don't pass up great deals.
I agree 100% with your second paragraph. I personally am not looking for the absolute bottom but will wait for some positive news before jumping back in.