Adam Re:CCLWF -
Your point is spot on. People have certainly adopted more of a wait and see attitude given the new measures of the past few weeks.
That said, asking prices don't seem to be dropping much yet based upon cursory glances at the ads in local real estate offices. I live in Shenzhen, so the market here (particularly at the very high end) got bid up quite a bit although more middle class apartments didn't see as dramatic a rise but certainly a rise nonetheless. As the investors and speculators cool to the market I do expect prices here in the mid range to fall 10-15% from their highs, but I also expect the market to catch a bid around that point since there is quite a large population of natural home buyers in this area and not a great deal of new mid to low end residential construction going on within the city limits. As previous posters have also pointed out, incomes are certainly on the rise as well and that should help to offer support.
While I don't have any first hand knowledge of the situation in 2nd and 3rd tier cities, my sense is that their situation is more or less similar.
There's no question, the market for luxury properties in Beijing, Shanghai, and here will get hit, but I don't think the impact will be as great on the middle and low end of the market. Places like Hainan which also saw quite an investor frenzy in the past 6 months or so will also probably take a hit.
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