Replies to post #173 on China Ceramics Co. Ltd. (CCLTF)

[Drexion2004]

Look at how much the government has planned for construction for 2010/2011 with regards to land-alloted/etc. A *ton* of new supply has been set. Increase in supply is part of the government's plan to control the price increases.

So while headlines may move the stock, I still think the fundamental picture is fine for now.

-Fernando

[redman_2014]

I'm sure we will see some weakness in the common and warrants of China Ceramics until the market determines whether the tightening policies will dampen or kill the housing industry. I personally think this tightening will help because it hopefully is eliminating the threat of a problematic overheating industry. I don't know how much the company will be affected by the policies because tiles are used in renovations and reconstructions, plus the government is also building 3 million affordable homes for it's residents. So with earthquake reconstruction, an increasing number of renovations due to less-than-stellar quality control in the industry, and the affordable housing contruction I think China Ceramics will still be busy, it's just tough to determine future sales numbers.

I don't know if CCLTF will grow at it's proposed 30% growth rate, but I'm not worried at all with my large warrant position. A two and a half year expiration date allows for a lot of patience, plus the value is way too compelling with the common selling at 3x trailing earnings with potential uplisting this year.

If the warrants dip a lot I will be a buyer.


-Adam

[redman_2014]

Email from IR.

I sent an email to Ed Job a couple days ago and just received a reply. It helps answer your question.


Adam;

I am working on providing sales breakdown and will let you know when i have it. Management does not expect to be affected by current measures... at this point. As governments move to create affordable homes, China Ceramics expects to benefit...

regards,

Ed Job, CFA
Cel: +(86) 1381-699-7314

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So the way I read it is: management believes the company's sales will not be affected by the tightening that has already taken place, but the ramifications of any further policy initiatives is an unknown. And the governments affordable home program will take a while to implement, but once it does China Ceramics will be supplying tile for those homes..


-Adam