Replies to post #558 on MDA - Market Direction Analysis (MDA)

[Ek]

LG: altho i have reservations about the strength of this bull, TA is telling me to stay with it, and i will, for now !

If DIA can take out the 87.50 level, we see 95, if not, saynara bulls ! compx is along for the ride, but i believe the DOW dictates the future,

jmho. Ek

[wahz]

Posted by: wahz
In reply to: augieboo who wrote msg# 24040 Date:9/10/2002 4:09:16 PM
Post #of 24052

I think we spike to take care of max pain, and fill some more gaps(1347 nas, for example). Also, the criminal minds have a great shot here: they know that everyone is going to short the failure of this rally, anywhere under 1426. So this has to stop under that, and a turn at a double top will be the most perfect. But they want as highas they can get so that more $$$ is made on the fall to 1200 or much worse.

I say they throw everything at this thing to get it as high as they can, but 1347 is minimum.

Edit: I worry that they turn it at 1335 to get folks off balance, and then create gyrations through expiry, but go no higher than 1335, but this is a lesse probability event, although I may be underestimating the destruction this psychopathic action would cause, by screwing the shorts with a fake out and spike down.

[was Steve]

I have not done much in the WAG dept this last few weeks. I have been having a very difficult time getting a feel for where we are going. I am holding some BRCM overnight just in case we get a pop. Should a miracle occur and markets go up in am(BRCM too), I will be looking at SOX and QQQ puts.

steve

[ajtj99]

Well, here's some of my thoughts on the market tomorrow:

Here's a 60-minute NDX chart showing an indicator turning up at the 50-line:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[h,a]eacl...

The RSI is in a rising wedge, the slow stoch's are in a symmetrical triangle. The resistance tomorrow is at 952 NDX, 960, 963, and 973. The target could be a 973 double top on the NDX, which would be 1445 COMP. Maybe that gap at COMP 1446 gets filled and we reverse. We'll see. Whatever happens, tomorrow appears to be the last chance at this top, IMO, as the 60-minute will be pretty tapped out.

This is actually refreshing, as it is confirmation that I did not put the top today <G>

BTW, rising support is at 940 NDX and 925 NDX tomorrow early. It moves up as the day progresses and should be at 960 and 940 respectively by the end of the session tomorrow.
A break of the lower level will break the uptrend off the lows.

That said, here's the COMP 60-minute with lines:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]ea...

Pretty similar to the NDX, but the COMP has some decent resistance as well as a steeper rising support off the lows today. The COMP levels that match up with the NDX are 1331, 1335, and 1345. Max Pain on the QQQ is 24, which lines up well with the upper resistance at 973 NDX. It also matches up well with the NDX 975 Max Pain for Sept.

Interesting that the QQQ is still below Max pain while most of the large caps are at least a notch above Max Pain (EBAY, QCOM, INTC, CSCO, and others). MSFT's pain is 50, but could just as easily be 47.50.

Anyway, we may get a blow-off top tomorrow according to what I'm seeing here, but that should reverse back down to test the 1251 pivot low and ultimately the July lows later this month, IMO.

[bbgold]

Consolidation day IMO
Unless we do get a Major terrorist action I think that we consolidate between either 8500-8600 or 8550-8650 tomorrow. That will depend on whether we have an Open above or below 8600 in the AM. Interesting that the DJX Max pain is at 88 but the DIA Max pain is at 84. That would leave us trading close to 8600 IMO. I am not even going to go into a scenario if there is a Major attack. I am sitting on all cash here and believe that may be the Safest way to be here. Long term I am Bullish here and think that we may have seen the Bottom and are stairstepping up to the January Effect already.
Have a Great Evening Everyone! :^)



Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!

[hk2]

I'm looking for a max of 1360 on the COMPX
We've got a falling RL hitting 1360 on Thursday.
50 EMA is at 1360.
61.8% retrace of our drop from 1426 is 1359.62 <g>

Anyways, that's what I'm thinkin'.

[John R. Haley]

My WAG for tomorrow is for the market to go down. It will tank if something bad happens. If nothing bad happens it will go down because people will be left with realizing that this is a a bear market and things really don't look good for it.

BWDIK?

Best to all,

JRH

[wstera2]

14:01 ET Network Appliance: positive comments from Pru (NTAP) 9.45 +0.15: Following meetings with a number of storage co's, Prudential says that overall they believe that NTAP will be among the best positioned to leverage a rev recovery; co remains comfortable with their 2-5% QoQ rev growth target but expects growth to accelerate throughout the FY as the co gains share and ramps new products; in addition, U.S. and Asia/Pacific demand were noted to be improving while Europe was weakening.