MDA - Market Direction Analysis

[ajtj99]

Well, here's some of my thoughts on the market tomorrow:

Here's a 60-minute NDX chart showing an indicator turning up at the 50-line:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[h,a]eacl...

The RSI is in a rising wedge, the slow stoch's are in a symmetrical triangle. The resistance tomorrow is at 952 NDX, 960, 963, and 973. The target could be a 973 double top on the NDX, which would be 1445 COMP. Maybe that gap at COMP 1446 gets filled and we reverse. We'll see. Whatever happens, tomorrow appears to be the last chance at this top, IMO, as the 60-minute will be pretty tapped out.

This is actually refreshing, as it is confirmation that I did not put the top today <G>

BTW, rising support is at 940 NDX and 925 NDX tomorrow early. It moves up as the day progresses and should be at 960 and 940 respectively by the end of the session tomorrow.
A break of the lower level will break the uptrend off the lows.

That said, here's the COMP 60-minute with lines:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]ea...

Pretty similar to the NDX, but the COMP has some decent resistance as well as a steeper rising support off the lows today. The COMP levels that match up with the NDX are 1331, 1335, and 1345. Max Pain on the QQQ is 24, which lines up well with the upper resistance at 973 NDX. It also matches up well with the NDX 975 Max Pain for Sept.

Interesting that the QQQ is still below Max pain while most of the large caps are at least a notch above Max Pain (EBAY, QCOM, INTC, CSCO, and others). MSFT's pain is 50, but could just as easily be 47.50.

Anyway, we may get a blow-off top tomorrow according to what I'm seeing here, but that should reverse back down to test the 1251 pivot low and ultimately the July lows later this month, IMO.