Replies to post #559 on S2 Option Trader

[sungolfer]

Fish,don't know how long you have been on this site.If you go back to the to old site MRVL,you'll see that i am a believer of using the 5ema.This winter I sent away for Mitch King CD'S.He took 15000,made it into 3.5 million.How using exactly what i do.I just could not believe it.Until any "SHORT" ETF is above its 5ema its not a buy.Everyone one wants to catch the bottom.Will it be Monday,I think the big boys will let the earning season run another week or two.I suppect more of a sideways move for a few days,than a possible big "doji".with move above the 5ema.That will be the turn.MHO.

[plashadpobedy]

Leveraged-short ETFs are a black hole.....

I've lost a ton of $$$s on short ETFs. They no longer return x2 or x3 the market now days, so why bother (other than what S2 has already pointed out, they are cheap vs. options, and there is no time limit).

Any chart will tell you they are a lost cause.

I had (10) IWM APL10 puts bought in February, but sold them at a loss after March expiration. I could see then, that this market could keep moving higher. I am 100% out of the market right now.

The big boys keep squeezing the market up. The channels now are so shallow now, it's hard to make any money unless you're day-trading and watching the whole session. With the spread and delta on options, hardly makes it worth the risk.

The pre-market futures, ESs, or the YMs, are pretty useless for predicting the direction of the session. Even long, you need a movement of 10pts on the SPX to make a buck (not figuring in the discounting effect of the delta). A move of 10pts on the SPX these days is an outside-day.

The cheap FED money (liquidity) is going to have to dry up before this market falls. No telling when that will be.

For now, it's just a game of chicken. I'd stay out of the market for now and definitely out of short, leveraged ETFs. I also don't see any volume on the put side either.

[pHiLtHy]

TZA charts

long term pic with upper TL... this is still in basing phase...



zoom close-up... must break north of bull-wedgie... horizontal lines are potential areas of resistance... fibs don't count until you actually get a pivot bottom which hasn't happened yet.



view with floor pivots (pink = central zone, green = support, red = resistance)... notice that upper blue horizontal line that i drew in is sitting on top of R1... it really pays to know where these areas are whenever this makes a move... also yesterday's candle did small bounce off S2.



view with Market Profile tool overlay... (blue histo and yellow line = volume @ price POC / point-of-control, green / red lines are lower and upper boundries of "money zone")... money zone is where 70% of trades occurred in previous month... notice that upper boundry is nested right inside of central pivot zone (thin pink lines).... Elliott Wave tool (red/green indicator just above volume bars) still bearish until it flips to green.