Replies to post #4952 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[ergo sum]

Gee Tom

That Absolute Idiot looks kind of scary.

Just as a note here in Colorado there is talk about not issuing any building permits because of the drought. I wonder how things are in the rest of the country.

Sorry to hear about the soccer injury.

By the way I read somewhere today that there was a tornado in Wisconsin. Next time would you please cover your mouth before you sneeze.

Have Fun
Ergo Sum

[jibes]

Tom.

How is the long term average derived?

Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html

[fuzzymath]

Hi Tom. It looks to me like we could be headed for a wonderful November-January Effect this year. I saw a study in Barrons by Ned Davis that ran the analysis from 1900 to 2002, and incredibly, November-January still stands out as being the best time of the year to be fully invested. My NYSE Index analysis, which showed 50% of annual gains coming from November through January, ran only from 1968 to 1999.

Ned Davis's analysis also puts September as being the historically worst month for the stock market, just as my analysis showed.

So, with the Idiot Wave low, but perhaps up a bit, with the market likely historically to take a dip in the next 8 weeks or so, then rise strongly for 3 months, I think it could be a very good time to be ready to invest.

Ned Davis considers us to be in a 1929 US or 1989 Japan scenario, which is a horrid outlook for the next decade. He says you need to be a trading investor in times like these, buy and hold simply will not work.

Luckily for me, I have some nice business payments for work previously done that will be coming in just in time to let me get in on this year's "Effect".



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