AI
Tuesday, September 03, 2002 3:13:47 PM
The IW's creeping up this week but still well within the Low Risk area. From today's activity so far one would think Wall $t's in the mood to retest recent market lows.
The TV analysts and gurus are saying, "Too Much, Too Fast" on the recovery while investors are saying, "Not Enough, Please Hurry!"
Another way of looking at the Idiot Wave is to see what I call the Absolute Idiot which is actually a cumulative figure. Any time the IW's above the long term average value, it goes up and visa versa. Here's the image:
It's been dropping recently, but we're really pretty much flat since the end of the bubble. This may surprise some of you. We've spent very little total time below the average IW value since March of 2000. I think this is part of the reason that so many market analysts and economists are so worried about yet another big down-side move by the markets. They realize the only way that this market can support itself at the current levels is to earn its was to support. If it takes too long, we could see yet another round of wholesale selling and fund redemptions.
In the mean time the IW's saying the market should be able to rally here for a while. Maybe we've seen all the rally we're going to get for a while. Major indexes are up nicely from their lows.
Best regards, Tom
The TV analysts and gurus are saying, "Too Much, Too Fast" on the recovery while investors are saying, "Not Enough, Please Hurry!"
Another way of looking at the Idiot Wave is to see what I call the Absolute Idiot which is actually a cumulative figure. Any time the IW's above the long term average value, it goes up and visa versa. Here's the image:
It's been dropping recently, but we're really pretty much flat since the end of the bubble. This may surprise some of you. We've spent very little total time below the average IW value since March of 2000. I think this is part of the reason that so many market analysts and economists are so worried about yet another big down-side move by the markets. They realize the only way that this market can support itself at the current levels is to earn its was to support. If it takes too long, we could see yet another round of wholesale selling and fund redemptions.
In the mean time the IW's saying the market should be able to rally here for a while. Maybe we've seen all the rally we're going to get for a while. Major indexes are up nicely from their lows.
Best regards, Tom
Port Washington, WI 53074
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