Replies to post #93598 on Biotech Values

[Biowatch]

Submerging countries: Interesting metric if sea levels rise one or two or three meters. Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and other coastal areas will be in trouble, as will their neighbors when population shifts occur.

[genisi]

“Emerging markets”
During investor meeting last Jan, Teva's CFO Eyal Deshe talked about Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey as global targets for Teva and mentioned India and China as the less interesting ones for this aspect.

[DewDiligence]

PFE, Biocon Ink Collaboration for Insulin Biosimilars

[This is yet Big Pharma deal focused on branded generics in emerging markets. Biocon, the largest biopharmaceutical company in India, has commercialized knockoffs of the branded insulin analogs from SNY, NVO, and LLY in several emerging markets including India. PFE is paying $200M up-front and as much as $150M in regulatory milestones to get a piece of the action.]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Biocon-and-Pfizer-Enter-Into-prnews-2372845369.html?x=0&.v=1

›Biocon and Pfizer Enter Into Global Commercialization Agreement

- Creates Global Alliance Well Positioned to Deliver Essential Insulin Treatments to Diabetes Patients Worldwide -

Source: Pfizer
Monday October 18, 2010, 7:00 am EDT

BANGALORE, India and NEW YORK, Oct. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Biocon, Asia's premier biotechnology company, and Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE), the world's leading biopharmaceutical company, today announced that they have entered into a strategic global agreement for the worldwide commercialization of Biocon's biosimilar versions of Insulin and Insulin analog products: Recombinant Human Insulin, Glargine, Aspart and Lispro. Pfizer will have exclusive rights to commercialize these products globally, with certain exceptions, including co-exclusive rights for all of the products with Biocon in Germany, India and Malaysia. Pfizer will also have co-exclusive rights with existing Biocon licensees with respect to some of the products, primarily in a number of developing markets.

Biocon will remain responsible for the clinical development, manufacture and supply of these biosimilar Insulin products, as well as for regulatory activities to secure approval for these products in various geographies. Biocon's Recombinant Human Insulin formulations are approved in 27 countries in developing markets, and commercialized in 23, while Glargine has been launched in its first market, India.

Under the terms of the agreement, Pfizer will make upfront payments totaling $200 million. Biocon is also eligible to receive additional development and regulatory milestone payments of up to $150 million and will receive additional payments linked to Pfizer's sales of its four Insulin biosimilar products across global markets.

…Commenting on this major alliance, Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, chairman and managing director of Biocon, said: "This is indeed a significant inflection point in our globalization path. Pfizer and Biocon bring together a winning combination of marketing, manufacturing and research excellence which can build a formidable global footprint in Diabetes care. Pfizer brings brand strength and a vast and unrivalled global marketing network that will enable Biocon to realize its objective of seeing its Insulin portfolio have a worldwide presence."

"We are excited to join forces with Biocon in the battle against the disease and economic burden that Diabetes poses to global health. Our alliance with Biocon will enable the delivery of biosimilar Insulin products, providing attractive, cost-effective treatment options to more Diabetes patients," said David Simmons, president and general manager of Pfizer's Established Products Business Unit. "In addition, this collaboration supports our stated efforts to become a strong player in follow-on biologics as well as in the Diabetes disease area, by adding to Pfizer's broad biotherapeutics portfolio, ranging from biosuperiors to biosimilars, across multiple therapeutic areas, which we've said we will supplement with both our in-house development efforts and selective collaborations."

The 2010 market for Diabetes drugs and devices is estimated at $40 billion with Insulins accounting for $14 billion or 35% of the Diabetes segment.(1) By 2015, a number of Insulin analogs are expected to lose patent protection, resulting in a significant opportunity for the biosimilars market. With this alliance, Pfizer and Biocon expect to be well positioned to be first movers in this potentially large market opportunity.

…About Biocon

Established in 1978, Biocon Limited (BSE code: 532523, NSE Id: BIOCON, ISIN Id: INE376G01013) is India's largest biotechnology company by revenue. The Group, promoted by Ms. Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, is a fully-integrated, innovation-driven healthcare enterprise with strategic focus on biopharmaceuticals and research services. Biocon's value chain traverses the entire length of discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics. With successful initiatives in clinical development, bio-processing and global marketing, Biocon delivers products and solutions to partners and customers in approximately 75 countries across the globe. Many of these products have USFDA and EMEA acceptance. Biocon's robust product offering includes the world's first Pichia-based recombinant human insulin, INSUGEN® and India's first indigenously produced monoclonal antibody, BIOMAb-EGFR™. Visit us at www.Biocon.com.‹

[DewDiligence]

NVS Invests $500M in St. Petersburg Manufacturing Plant

[The pharma market in Russia has an annual growth rate in the high teens, much of it in branded generics. NVS wants to participate.]

http://www.novartis.com/newsroom/media-releases/en/2010/1474003.shtml

›December 20, 2010 07:15 CET

Novartis affirms commitment to Russia through USD 500 million multi-year healthcare investment

• Novartis signs Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with City of St. Petersburg for construction of new Novartis manufacturing plant

• Overall commitment includes expansion of research and development collaborations and public health alliances to contribute to the Russian government's plans to strengthen healthcare system and improve health outcomes in Russia

• Investment in local manufacturing reinforces Russia as an integral part of the Novartis strategy for growth

Basel, December 20, 2010 - Novartis announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the City of St. Petersburg, confirming its intent to build a new full-scale pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in St. Petersburg; Russia. This investment is part of an overall USD 500 million commitment in local infrastructure and collaborative healthcare initiatives planned over a five-year period. This comprehensive partnership addresses three core areas that include local manufacturing, research and development (R&D) partnerships and public health development. The MoU signing deepens the company's existing commitment to becoming Russia's leading healthcare partner in supporting governmental healthcare reform.

"Novartis is making a strategic investment in Russia for long term growth. This collaboration shows our commitment to contributing to the ambitious healthcare goals of the Russian government," said Joseph Jimenez, CEO, Novartis AG. "The ongoing partnership with Russia enables us to expand our commercial presence in a key emerging market. The scientific development and public health efforts have been prioritized to focus on the most beneficial programs for the Russian people."

The St. Petersburg site will be a modern, state-of-the-art pharmaceutical manufacturing plant. The facility represents a significant Novartis investment to date in Russia and will enable transfer of cutting-edge technologies and skills to the Russian Federation.

Once completed and approved for commercial production, the new St. Petersburg facility is expected to manufacture both high-quality branded generics as well as pharmaceuticals. This is expected to be one of largest investments by Novartis in local manufacturing and is planned to eventually serve the needs of the Russian market and other parts of the world. Construction is scheduled to start in 2011 and the plant is expected to produce approximately 1.5 billion units per year.

In parallel with the establishment of its own manufacturing facility in Russia, Novartis plans to continue to expand its investments in R&D and public health collaborations in alliance with the Russian government.

These activities include collaborations with both universities and academia, but also with emerging Russian private business in different areas of medical science. The scope of these collaborations may include such efforts as out-licensing of Novartis compounds to Russian companies with proven scientific capabilities, in-licensing and scouting for promising drug candidates from Russian scientists and universities and modeling and simulation activities for clinical trials. Novartis is actively working in all of these areas, identifying high potential projects to be jointly developed. Additionally, Novartis also has made a commitment to double its investments in drug development in clinical trials in Russia and expects to enroll approximately 4,000 individuals by the year 2013.

Russia is a fast growing emerging market, with high unmet medical needs, and a government that is increasing its healthcare investment and focus on both local and non-local healthcare market collaborators. With its increasing commitment to and demand for better healthcare, the Russian government is well suited to partner with Novartis to address their healthcare priorities and improve healthcare outcomes.

Novartis is committed to collaborating with the Russian Government in implementing its strategy to develop the local pharmaceutical industry and enhance the Russian healthcare system. The company, the first and only pharmaceutical business in Russia's Foreign Investment Advisory Council (FIAC), will be establishing public health partnerships with federal and regional health authorities. These joint efforts are expected to result in improved health outcomes for Russian patients.‹

[DewDiligence]

Demographic projections for 2050:

• The worldwide number of people aged 65+ will reach 1.6B, up from 500M currently.

• Worldwide life expectancy will reach 76, up from 66 currently.

Source: Proctor & Gamble

[DewDiligence]

India’s Population Reaches 1.2 Billion

[India will almost certainly surpass China as the most populous country in the next few decades. See #msg-50473238 and #msg-42162914 for related info.]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703806304576233981941525872.html

›APRIL 1, 2011
By TRIPTI LAHIRI

NEW DELHI—India Thursday released the first results of a new census showing that the world's second-most populous nation added 181 million people—equivalent to about five Canadas—in the past decade to reach a total of 1.21 billion.

The new numbers were higher than the 1.19 billion estimate that the Registrar General of India had previously projected for this year even though there was a slowing in growth from the previous decade, including in some of India's most populous states. Overall, the nation's population growth for the decade slowed to 17.64% over the past 10 years [I would have placed quotation marks around the word, “slowed”] from 21.54% in the decade to 2001.

Literacy increased for the country as a whole—climbing to 74% from about 65%. But on the gender front, the sex ratio among children up to age 6 dropped to 914 girls for each 1,000 boys from 927 a decade ago, showing that female foeticide continues to be a widespread practice because of a traditional preference in some communities for boys. Census Commissioner C. Chandramouli described that statistic as "grim."

Population density in the country increased as well, with the country averaging 989 people a square mile, up from 842 a decade ago. The area around the Indian capital was the densest in the nation, reaching 29,000 people a square mile. Final population figures are slated to be released next year.

The population data, taken together with unemployment and job-creation figures due toward the end of the year that were gathered after India's period of high economic growth, will give a sense of whether the country can take economic advantage of its youthful work force through a so-called "demographic dividend"—or whether demographics will turn into an economic liability for the world's largest democracy. That is one of the biggest questions hanging over India's future.

The country has slipped hugely from the goal it set for itself a decade ago of reaching "replacement" fertility—generally considered to be roughly 2.1 children per woman over her lifetime, just enough to allow a woman to replace herself and her partner.

Reaching that rate now would have meant that India would stop growing before the middle of this century. Instead, the population may not stabilize until 2065, a report prepared for the country's Planning Commission has said. The country will knock China from the spot of the world's most populous nation far sooner than that—around 2030, the U.N. estimates. (China's population is about 1.34 billion, according to state media reports.) And yet, it has been a long time since India expressed the sort of unmitigated concern over its population as it has in previous decades.

While economic thinking since the 18th century has largely focused on the burdens of a large population, over the past decade a different view has taken hold since two Harvard economists, David Bloom and Jeffrey G. Williamson, wrote an influential 1998 paper linking the economic success of the East Asian economies to a boom in their working-age population.

According to them, it is possible to attribute as much as one-third of East Asian economic growth between 1965 and 1990, measured in per capita income, to demographic changes. India could experience something similar over the next 40 years.

"The dividend is very much on offer for India," said Mr. Bloom, now head of the department of global health and population at the Harvard School of Public Health, while on a recent visit to New Delhi.

The "dividend" isn't just the sheer number of people available to work. It also refers to a change in something called the dependency ratio—the proportion of working-age adults to the number of people too young or too old to work. Presently, every 10 people of working age in India need to support close to five children or teenagers as well as almost one elderly person.

In an additional 15 years, those 10 workers will be responsible for well under four youngsters, and one elderly person. This happens because improvements in health care can reduce infant and child mortality quickly—creating a sudden boom in numbers of the very young. It takes a little while, though, for a society to realize what is happening and reduce family sizes in response. That lag is what creates this bulge of workers who have fewer people to support than their parents do.

Instead of having to spend largely on immediate needs like food and clothes for children, these workers will be free to save more and those savings then create the capital to invest in infrastructure, in research and in technology, the thinking goes, providing an economic boost in the process. A recent working paper by two International Monetary Fund economists suggested that India may have already seen some fruits of this demographic transition. "It's been a very important component of the growth story in India for the last 30 years," said Shekhar Aiyar, one of the report's authors.

In particular, the paper hypothesized that the booming economies of three states—Gujarat, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu—were linked to their lower dependency ratios compared to poorer states that have been slower to reduce fertility. Across India fertility rates and dependency ratios vary widely, with some states at European levels of fertility and already beginning to age, while others are still experiencing very high fertility.

Mr. Bloom says reaping the demographic dividend is not a given, however. It will depend on India's policy choices, particularly in education and health. In effect, there is little advantage in having a big population if they aren't sufficiently educated to take up productive employment, or if there aren't enough meaningful jobs to accommodate the millions who come of working age each year.

Where a job, and therefore the dividend, can be fully seized, the results for individual prosperity can be dramatic. In a congested southwest Delhi neighborhood, in the home of an 11-year-old girl who was designated the "billionth" Indian when she was born in 2000, there's a living example of that. Although Aastha Arora won't enter the labor force herself for at least another decade, her 19-year-old cousin, Palak Arora, who lives upstairs, started working over a year ago.

Fresh out of high school she went to work at a call center, earning roughly $110 a month in her first job. After completing an airline ticketing course at a state-run institute in the capital, she got a job at an office handling reservations for a Middle Eastern Airline last year, doubling her salary. This month, she switched jobs again, and now works in the reservations office of an American hotel chain in the Delhi suburb of Gurgaon, earning about $330 a month. Her earnings have doubled the family income, which for years relied only on her father's earnings of roughly $270 a month.

Palak Arora, who is naturally shy and was tongue-tied at her very first job interview—she didn't get that job—says she has approached her recent job interviews as a question of "do or die."

Still, in spite of her niece's example, the mother of the billionth Indian worries about the future of her children.

"I didn't even know what a 'billion' was when they told me she was the 'billionth' baby. The population became a billion then. But it hasn't stopped growing," said Anjana Arora. "Even if they study, because of the way the population is growing, will they get employment?"

Presently, almost 13 million people enter the labor force in India each year. Statistics from India's last large-scale employment survey, gathered between 2004 and 2005, showed that India was averaging eight million new employment opportunities a year.

That study also found that unemployment among new entrants to the work force, or those workers aged 15 to 29, continues to be much higher than for the overall labor force. For young urban male workers it's running at 13.7% compared with 7.5% for urban male workers overall. But the last labor survey's figures were also gathered before India posted three years of 9%-plus economic growth. Indian officials will be watching whether the new survey, due in November, will show a decrease in youth unemployment.

Few young Indians are as well prepared to get jobs as Palak Arora. According to labor data from five years ago, less than 10% of people above the age of 15 had college degrees. And only 2% of people above the age of 15 had a technical degree or diploma. For now, employment for many of India's new young workers will likely be a poorly-paying informal construction job.

India still has time. Unlike China, which has bottomed out on its dependency ratio, and will now be watching its baby boomers age in coming decades, the share of India's working age population is going to grow for the next three decades, peaking in about 2045. But it doesn't have forever.

"India has to stay the course on investing in people. There's really a lot at stake," said Mr. Bloom. "If it misses this opportunity it should still do those things in the future but there won't be as big a payoff."‹

[DewDiligence]

Relative Economic Complexity of the World’s Major Countries



Source: #msg-68477621.

[md1225]

Immunization rates are very low in a few of these countries IBIO has been marketing its platform in Brazil China and India with GE over the past 2 months.

[DewDiligence]

Worldwide spending on prescription drugs will surpass $1 trillion in 2014 for the first time ever, according to IMS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-drug-spending-surpass-1-135312020.html

[DewDiligence]

Re: World population distribution

Pretty incredible stat pic.twitter.com/N7DND27d8o

— Jeff Farley (@TradeInTheZone) May 10, 2015

[DewDiligence]

[OT]—World map—land area proportional to each country's population:

#msg-119722504