I didn't imply the $116.5M would be raised in time to pay the capex, I said 'if' they had that cash it 'could' be beneficially used for that purpose. I know the terms of the warrants and you are right about $14.25 being the level required in order to make them callable.
'So they don't have $100million in cash on the books.'And they also don't have an extra 15.5M shares outstanding. But if the 15.5M do become outstanding the company will have $100M+ in the bank. You cannot mention the one without the other, therefore I don't think it's right to fully dilute your estimations(using 25.7M o/s) without somehow accounting for the cash. The treasury method tries to account for it, but the cash method I mentioned also does(thanks Fernando for showing an alternative method to treasury). An average of the two is probably the best course of action. The March presentation has a slide for the treasury method valuations using $6 $10 and $14.25 price points.
-Adam
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