THE MARKET EARLY MORNING RALLY lead to an after lunch sell off that left many folks taking a it on the chin with the markets closing at the lows for the day. Technically things look pretty dismal as advance-declines were 24 to 7 negative on New York and 23 to 8 on Nasdaq, or about 3 to 1 negative. Volume was extremely heavy on Nasdaq, with nearly 2.7 billion traded, about 1.8 billion of it to the downside, or 2 to 1 negative. Up/down volume on New York was much more negative, about 5 to 1 negative, although total volume was just a little over 1.5 billion. A six-week uptrend on the Nasdaq 100 was firmly broken at the end of the day, as the indices came down through rising trendlines, moving averages and price support. The S&P also dropped below a strong initial level of support and then below its rising moving averages as well closing right at its rising trendline of the last four weeks. Despite the fact that we have been in overbought territory for sometime the positive inflows to funds as well as the general bullish momentum have kept us moving higher. Eventually we will hit a top the question is whether it will be at moderately or much higher prices, and will it be in December, January or later in the first quarter.
Tomorrow is an important day ... if we see a follow-through of today's action it may be a signal that we have reached our peak for now. Keep your eye on market internals to see if this is just a day or two pause, or something of greater proportions...This does not mean we have to go down tomorrow, it could simply mean we just churn sideways and go nowhere for a couple of days... Right now be ready for the unexpected...
IDCC
Todays activity represented a moment of Healthy consolidation for the market and IDCC. We have been running in overdrive [oversold territory] for a while... All intermediate to long term indicators look positive. Short term have been due for some back and fill.
Some TA stats
RSI we have been running above 70 Nothing stays above 70 for a long period or below 30 for long period
Our intraday low in November was 15.53 that was on 9-Nov-04. Our intraday high since then was 21.64 hit on 3-Dec-04. ............13 WEEK HIGH
MOVING AVERAGES BEARISH INDICATOR----BROKE SECONDARY SUPPORT 21.09 Our 5 day moving average is 21.09 WE remain above our 20 day moving average of 19.48 which is positive this could act as support.
BULLISH INDICATOR----WELL ABOVE MAJOR SUPPORT Our 50 day moving average is 17.45-----------MAJOR SUPPORT Our 200-Day day moving average is 17.73------- -MAJOR SUPPORT
VOLUME AVERAGES Our 50 day average VOLUME 399,944 Our 20 day average VOLUME 590,965 Our 5 day average VOLUME 400,240 volume average backing down from the 20 day average
As to the fundamentals....the arbitration's and legal issues remain to be resolved. They still remain a major focus that will serve as a catapult to the next big move up. That is not to say that we are stuck in place. We will ebb and flow ... back and fill...until the resolutions are in place. This back and fill activity will be effected by positive and negative news from KOP as well as prevailing market conditions as seen today.
RECENT HISTORY.....
In my recent less frequent posts From my 10/26 post ..." the wind is to our back...and THESE days may be recognized in the not to distant future as the true “buying opportunity" for interested IDCC investors
In my last major post 11/10/2004 ....11 trading days later My Headline.... LET THE GAMES BEGIN...AGAIN It appears the long solid consolidation period may have come to an end....time is now on our side....Those interested in weighing in on the future will most likely be paying more and more in the weeks to come....
We closed down a 1.00 today near the low of the day. Some additional weakness is likely in the short term which should help confirm and solidify our recent move up into a higher trading range.
19.48 looks like our next support level....no guarantees that we will hit that no guarantees that we won't pierce that.
Your thoughts and comments are apptrciated. Alley Back to lurking.