BigB, chuckle from your choice of words with my morning coffee. Paulness, interesting. More thoughts on Prechter now ("Conquer the Crash"). Glutton for punishment that I am, I have now almost finished another read of the book which, with the 2002 edition makes three times. It is a great book. The third section seems to be an attempt to take credit for predicting the crash and downturn that started close to 1.5 years ago. Judging from the comparison with others, he is certainly entitied to do so. And yet, it is important to point out that what has already happened is NOT what he is predicting which is a scenario that is far more dire. I feel guilty stating my criticism in public but it is important to fairly share my current assessment so as not to mislead others. While what has happened in the current crisis can be seen as a downpayment on a developing crisis that will turn much worse over time, the third section makes clear that fitting current events to the wave idea is at best, a difficult task. Prechter seems to have been feeling that this dramatic crash is going to happen for the past eight years, since he finished the book. While I endorse the basic scenario as he provides compelling evidence, in my view, that it will happen, the timing is the great weakness. Even in the original idea, he does not know for sure whether the crash and depression that he predicts will occur all at once or gradually over a number of years. Part of the problem seems to be, as I already mentioned, that the number of actual cases of depression have been few and far between since the founding of the American republic. Apparently, two have occurred gradually, and two suddenly. As of this morning, and i am not completely finished yet with the end, I now believe that this timing "problem", is related to the method itself, that it is not sufficiently detalied to be that useful. The "crash", which i agree is coming, could happen today or a year from now, or three years from now. All the suggestions about "going safer" make sense but we are still talking about a rare event and they all mean giving up income in the short term. He is right that if not done in advance, it will be too late once the crisis is upon us making the matter in need of serious consideration. I lean now toward doing some changes leading to greater security. Perhaps his most insightful but most controversial observation has to do with government radicalism during such crisis times and the possibility that it could lead to attempts to come after "your" money. I am of two minds about this, agreeing with the more coventional view that this is America and it would be highly unlikely on the one hand, and with the other view that things could change to a shocking degree in a genuine financial meltdown.
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