Other than the speculative aspects regarding contracts etc. I'm going to have to agree with almost all of your post. The candle painted on the chart today is historically a pretty strong signal and it's right more often than it's wrong.
However, like all signals follow up confirmation has to occur. There is no way to know how today's PR will effect the stock as it came out after market close. Which leads to the timeless, never ending question...do the charts reflect the activity of the traders or, do the traders reflect the activity of the chart? The chicken or the egg so to speak.
My personal belief is the latter. The market is nothing more than participants making momentary and instantaneous agreements on price. The chart would not exist were it not for the behavior of the traders. That's why I like charts..they provide a visual image of the mindset of traders and give you a good idea as to the probability of the next move in the market. The mindset of traders can change on a dime. It's all how traders act on news releases and price action. I.e. Are the other market participants greedy? Or are they fearful? I saw no fear whatsoever in WDRP today. However, I did see greed when price reached a certain level.
I also believe that support and resistance levels are much more important than any candle pattern or indicator. The reason being is that support and resistance levels are nothing more than price memory. That price memory does not belong to the stock itself. Rather, that memory belongs to the traders/investors who hold the stock at various price levels. A perfect example of this would be the current price action in the S&P 500. The reason it's having such a hard time breaking higher is because of the memory of market participants that are now close to being back to even after one of the worst market declines in history. They are now dumping into any rallies because they want out and the dumping began just as soon as the market reached September 09 levels. That brings me back to my earlier point. There was not enough volume traded in this stock prior to it's channel breakout to seriously threaten any upward moves in this stock. The lion's share of the volume in this stock has been between .017-.022. The impatience of momentum traders is the greatest enemy of WDRP at this point.
On another note, One constant that I have found holds true through the years is that news trumps all. Always. Another one is that once you think you've mastered the market, the market will kick your ass. It's a day in, day out battle. Not with other traders but, with yourself.
No hard feelings here either and good luck to you.
-Dave-
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