Replies to post #21177 on The Black Box

[mjk]

No, can't really see 2400 by dec 31st...but dec 98 and 99 show anything is possible. I still think the most likely is still to get 2368-2400 by late Jan-early Feb. And that's the one that should also be getting 2153 this week, starting first thing monday with a strong open.

The more bullish scenario IMO would probably be a drop back to around 2060 early this week, then reverse and still close the week strong. But 2153 would be delayed a week or so. I think something like this could get 2500-2600 in the Apr timeframe.

I feel like I need to review things a bit more but I'm more inclined to just sit back now and wait to see where we are in Jan...of course I can't do that though <g>, and I'll be looking over things as we move along here.

[mjk]

Here's the more important stuff I'm looking at...

The comp corrected 18% this year...not unusual after the first leg of a cyclical bull. After such a correction, a 35% or so rally is common...my target is 2368-2400.

I have a fair value on the s&p around 1500-1600 right now, which means to me that it's at least 20% undervalued...I'm looking at the 2000 high of 1553 as a target. The comp I can see at 2800 min. The question for me is when it gets there. If I just go with what's typical, we get 2368-2400, then correct again around 10-14% into May or so, then take off into end of 05 getting 2800 in the fall.

The only other thing I'm really looking at is something like 1994, when interest rates went up throughout the year, the comp corrected about 15%, but the resulting 95 rally was about 50% before a several month consolidation into 96. 1994 was also a time that I see the market was about 15% undervalued at the low...the rally into 95 took it back to about "even" according to my stuff. So I see the market again getting back to even this time, which is that 2800 or so...just a matter of time IMO. I wouldn't be surprised by a 94-95 type move, since things are similar, but we've been stuck on a pretty common election year thing all through 04, so I've got to stick with this until it doesn't follow any longer. And the election year stuff says we keep going right here to 2153, with a peak of some kind around Feb.