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02/14/10 12:25 AM

#307309 RE: Stock Lobster #307308

FT: UBS reels as private bank is hit by exodus

By Haig Simonian in Zurich
Published: February 10 2010 02:00 | Last updated: February 10 2010 02:00

UBS revealed yesterday it suffered a sharp acceleration of outflows from its once powerhouse private bank in the fourth-quarter, underlining the scale of the problems facing the Swiss banking group.

Net outflows from the private bank doubled to SFr33bn (£19.7bn) in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, bringing the total for 2009 to SFr90bn - an amount more than the size of most Swiss private banks.

Overshadowing a return to profitability by UBS, the withdrawals came after SFr107bn of outflows in 2008 and compared with invested assets at the end of December of SFr960bn. The outflows were swollen by the Italian tax amnesty and the sale of a Brazilian subsidiary, but UBS acknowledged staff defections and uncertainties about Swiss bank secrecy would hurt flows for some time.

Oswald Grübel, chief executive, said the tide would turn as clients and staff regained confidence in the bank because of restored profitability.

Net earnings amounted to SFr1.21bn in the fourth quarter, with profits boosted by a much lower accounting charge of SFr24m on the value of the bank's debt, and a SFr480m tax credit, as well as sharply lower costs. The fourth-quarter result compared with a SFr564m loss in the previous three months, and reduced the loss for 2009 to SFr2.74bn from SFr21.29bn the previous year. Group earnings were boosted by cost cuts and staff reductions. It paid out bonuses for group staff of SFr3bn in 2009. up from SFr1.7bn in 2008.

"The net new money was the most important figure in these results and at SFr33.2bn outflows it was far worse than expected," said Peter Thorne, analyst at Helvea, the Swiss broker.

The Italian tax amnesty alone triggered outflows of SFr22.8bn, although UBS retained SFr14.3bn within the group, vindicating its strategy of creating an "onshore" private banking network in neighbouring countries. However, net outflows from even core clients in Switzerland surged to SFr5.9bn compared with SFr3.9bn in the third quarter, although flows in Asia Pacific turned positive.

Pre-tax profits in private banking rose 40 per cent to SFr1.11bn, quarter on quarter, due to lower costs. Earnings before tax in investment banking were SFr297m, compared with a pre-tax loss of SFr1.37bn in the third quarter.

A shrinking balance sheet boosted UBS's tier one ratio - a key measure of capital strength - to 15.4 per cent at year end, compared with 15 per cent on September 30 and 11 per cent at the end of 2008. The core tier one ratio - excluding hybrid capital instruments - was 11.9 per cent. Total assets fell by 21 per cent year on year to SFr919bn, while total risk weighted assets fell by 32 per cent to SFr207bn.

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Tuff-Stuff

02/14/10 4:52 AM

#307319 RE: Stock Lobster #307308

>>States to Senate: Send more federal aid

States are looking to the federal government for more help balancing their budgets, but the Senate is not heeding their call.

Federal aid to the states was among the top priorities in an early Senate job creation bill, as well as in a $154 billion measure passed by the House in December. But it has fallen off the list as Senate Democrats look to craft legislation that will attract bipartisan support.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., on Thursday unveiled a jobs bill that does not contain state aid. A Senate Democratic aide said Reid hopes to back a state aid measure in the future. Republican support, however, remains questionable.

Experts and state officials say they need to know now whether they'll get more funds. Governors are currently crafting their budgets and, for many, it will be their third year of contending with massive deficits due to declining tax revenues.
Big budget gaps

States are looking at a total budget gap of $180 billion for fiscal 2011, which for most of them begins July 1. These cuts could lead to a loss of 900,000 jobs, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com.

"State and local government spending is a very important driver of the national economy, especially when the private sector is faltering," said Jon Shure, deputy director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities' State Fiscal Project.

To close this gap, governors and lawmakers will be forced to lay off state employees, cut services and postpone capital projects, said Michael Bird, federal affairs counsel for the National Conference of State Legislators.
0:00 /4:30Ohio town rests hope on stimulus

The cutbacks will all work against an economic recovery.

Already, states laid off 44,000 workers in the 12 months ending in January, according to federal labor statistics.

In California, for instance, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is proposing deep cuts to health care, education, the state workforce and social services programs. The governor is looking to Washington D.C. for $6.9 billion for its fiscal 2011 budget, on top of the $6 billion in stimulus funds it is using.

"We believe that providing funds to states will provide the flexibility critical to jumpstart our economy and create jobs," said Eric Alborg, communications director of the California Recovery Task Force.

Massachusetts, meanwhile, is counting on $600 million in federal Medicaid funds that have yet to be approved by the Senate. The state needs the money to close a $3 billion budget gap for fiscal 2011, which comes on top of the $9 billion deficit it has closed over the past two years.

Without that money, "everything has to be on the table," said Cyndi Roy, budget spokeswoman for Gov. Deval Patrick.
Mixed support on Capitol Hill

While many Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill back another federal bailout of the states, Republicans have said they don't think it's the best way to create jobs.

A recent Congressional Budget Office report showed that sending money to the states for needs other than infrastructure does spur hiring, but not as much as increasing aid to the unemployed or cutting employers' payroll taxes.

Still, CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf said in testimony Friday that providing aid promptly would probably have a significant effect on employment and economic output.

"Without further aid from the federal government, many states would have to raise taxes or cut spending by more than they would if aid was provided," Elmendorf said. "Such actions would dampen spending by those government and by households in those states, and more state and private jobs would be lost."

Not only would state workers be impacted, but government contractors and suppliers would be too, Shure said. If the states curtain their spending, the companies that do business with them will likely downsize too.

Though the most recent version of the Senate jobs bill does not contain state aid, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., on Friday urged her peers on Capitol Hill to take up the issue.

"We will work to ensure that critical pieces of the House-passed Jobs for Main Street Act are enacted into law -- including investments in our roads, bridges, and public transit systems, support for job training initiatives, and funding to keep police and firefighters on the streets and teachers in the classroom," Pelosi said. To top of page