The Wave count from the $200 area has three possible counts.
The first is Wave 1 started and ended at the price high and vol spike between 14:00 11/02 and 13:30 11/03. Wave 2 was a flat that ended $197.50 just before 13:30 11/02 Wave 3 ended at the low $184 between 13:30 11/03 and 13:00 11/04 Wave 4 a zigzag ended $190 shortly after 13:00 11/04 Wave 5 ended at $169 12:30 11/05
Since then a corrective flat is unfolding Wave A is $169 to $175 Wave B is $175 to $165 Wave C is $165 to ??? May not have completed since wave C2 looks like a flat and wave C4 looks like a zigzag.
The Second is Wave 1 started at $202 and ended at $184 Wave 2 was a zigzag from $184 and $190. Wave 3 had a gap as is drop from $190 to $169 Wave 4 a traingle between $169 and $172 Wave 5 ended just below $169 between 12:30 11/05 and 12:00 11/08
Since then a corrective flat is unfolding (pretty much the same as in the first case) Wave A is $169 to $175 Wave B is $175 to $165 Wave C is $165 to ??? May not have completed since wave C2 looks like a flat and wave C4 looks like a zigzag.
The Third is Wave 1 started at $202 and ended at $184 Wave 2 was a zigzag from $184 and $190. Wave 3 had a gap as is drop from $190 to $169 Wave 4 a traingle between $169 and $175 Wave 5 ended at $165 11:30 11/09
Since then a corrective zigzag is unfolding Wave A is $165 to $172.50 Wave B is $172.50 to $167.50 Wave C is $167.50 to $190 Multiday wave 3 is beginning to unfold.
So which is the "Best" count? My preference is the third situation. The channel lines for the wave from $202 to $165 look good. There is a well formed inverted head and shoulders. The gap occurred in wave 3 Triangle generally occur in wave 4 positions The zigzag retraced 67.5%, though 61.2% would have been ideal. The wave ratio of zig to zag is 1:3 nearly perfectly. The beginning of wave 3 was resistance at $190 for the zag. It would be a tuning point on the same day the broader markets look to have topped.
My next best choice is the second situation. The channel lines for the wave from $202 to $169 look good. The channel lines for wave C look good. The gap occurred in wave 3 The flat has retraced at least 67.5%. The upside target of $194 would be a 78% retracement. The wave ratio of C1 to C3 is 1:3 nearly perfectly. The resistance at $190 would be retested by C5.
Should the move $202 to $165 actually be a corrective wave, then the zigzag would be relabeled waves 51 through 54 with 55 left to retest the all time highs.
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