Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Deva: GOOG wave counts

The Wave count from the $200 area has three possible counts.

The first is
Wave 1 started and ended at the price high and vol spike between 14:00 11/02 and 13:30 11/03.
Wave 2 was a flat that ended $197.50 just before 13:30 11/02
Wave 3 ended at the low $184 between 13:30 11/03 and 13:00 11/04
Wave 4 a zigzag ended $190 shortly after 13:00 11/04
Wave 5 ended at $169 12:30 11/05

Since then a corrective flat is unfolding
Wave A is $169 to $175
Wave B is $175 to $165
Wave C is $165 to ??? May not have completed since wave C2 looks like a flat and wave C4 looks like a zigzag.

The Second is
Wave 1 started at $202 and ended at $184
Wave 2 was a zigzag from $184 and $190.
Wave 3 had a gap as is drop from $190 to $169
Wave 4 a traingle between $169 and $172
Wave 5 ended just below $169 between 12:30 11/05 and 12:00 11/08

Since then a corrective flat is unfolding (pretty much the same as in the first case)
Wave A is $169 to $175
Wave B is $175 to $165
Wave C is $165 to ??? May not have completed since wave C2 looks like a flat and wave C4 looks like a zigzag.

The Third is
Wave 1 started at $202 and ended at $184
Wave 2 was a zigzag from $184 and $190.
Wave 3 had a gap as is drop from $190 to $169
Wave 4 a traingle between $169 and $175
Wave 5 ended at $165 11:30 11/09

Since then a corrective zigzag is unfolding
Wave A is $165 to $172.50
Wave B is $172.50 to $167.50
Wave C is $167.50 to $190
Multiday wave 3 is beginning to unfold.


So which is the "Best" count?
My preference is the third situation.
The channel lines for the wave from $202 to $165 look good.
There is a well formed inverted head and shoulders.
The gap occurred in wave 3
Triangle generally occur in wave 4 positions
The zigzag retraced 67.5%, though 61.2% would have been ideal.
The wave ratio of zig to zag is 1:3 nearly perfectly.
The beginning of wave 3 was resistance at $190 for the zag.
It would be a tuning point on the same day the broader markets look to have topped.

My next best choice is the second situation.
The channel lines for the wave from $202 to $169 look good.
The channel lines for wave C look good.
The gap occurred in wave 3
The flat has retraced at least 67.5%. The upside target of $194 would be a 78% retracement.
The wave ratio of C1 to C3 is 1:3 nearly perfectly.
The resistance at $190 would be retested by C5.

Should the move $202 to $165 actually be a corrective wave, then the zigzag would be relabeled waves 51 through 54 with 55 left to retest the all time highs.

http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=goog&data=Z15&date=111204&den=HIGH&evnt=ADV...