Replies to post #12354 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[wstera2]

Zeev,

I have a limit sell in on QLGC for $38.88 in AH. I already flipped it once today. Do you think they will gap it up that much tomorrow, or just ramp it from the getgo to squeeze 'em?

Ö¿Ö

[wstera2]

Oh well...... looks like making the shorts sweat tomorrow should pay off..... I just got my QLGC taken @ $38.88 - my buy was $37.76, which was a $1.15 discount on my earlier sale during regular hours.

Good luck with your Q Zeev.

Ö¿Ö

[Rayman]

Good luck Zeev, I hope this AH will not turn out to be a copy of last Monday, when everything were flying, until the next morning TSM dropped the bomb. I sold some AH last Monday, but rest of the holding all bombed on me because damn liar TSM which never has my respect anyway.

Despite my great respect for you Zeev, I have a hard time seeing 1525, but on the other hand, everytime I start to have a little doubt about the turnips, it will do exactly what it wants just to make me speechless<g>.

Happy trading.

[ajtj99]

Just curious, Zeev, what will cause you to re-consider a rally to the 1500 level?

Another question - do you agree that all bubbles re-trace in a bell curve?

Simple examples:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=JDSU&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CSCO&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ORCL&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=INTC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Eixic&d=c&k=c1&t=my&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&...

I chose these simple charts as they seem to illustrate the point easily.

If you agree we had a bubble in the Nasdaq, then it should follow that the deflation follows historic bubble examples.

1966-1982 was not a classic bubble. The bell curve on the internet bubble is flattening out, but there is still downside to deal with yet.

I see us dropping after expiration to COMP 1000 by early September, ramping to COMP 1250 for September expiration, and dropping back to 1000 again into the end of the year. I think the eventual bottom will be at 700-800 COMP in late Spring next year.

I don't believe we will see any rallies greater than 250-points on the COMP, and we will not surpass 1459 COMP until 2004.

That's based upon some indicators I watch as well as historic bubble examples.

BTW, there is a pretty decent channel line at COMP 1300 that should reign in any action off this 10-hour ramp.

I know the turnips reserve the right to be wrong and change their mind, but can they change the era on which they base their projections?

If you had to write a position paper defending the 1966-1982 era versus the 1926-1932 bubble as the proper reference for this market, I think it would be extremely difficult to get enough evidence to support this mirroring the 1966-1982 market better than the 1926-1932 bubble.

Just attempting to appeal to your professorial side here, Zeev.