Good DD!
From the perspective of someone who just started looking at this during last week's run my take on this so far (with the express caveat that it is just my take, i'm not an accountant, am probably way off on some things, don't rely on this, etc. etc.)is:
1. Obviously 'something' going on.
2. With regard to the NOL, I tried to decipher the tax code mentioned and the exemption to the restriction in the event of an ownership change seemed to relate to old debt. It sounds like the debt they bought was old and I'm not even sure an ownership change would have occurred with the debt purchase. My point is, if NOL were being sought to be protected, HOW would someone go about it and how closely does that match what has occurred?
3. I asked a friend who is retired FCC and has experience and continuing interest in sat. radio about the value of the spectrum licenses, am waiting for a reply but he did say previously that the SIRI, Liberty, Worldspace, combined project made sense and sounded right.
4. From what I can determine from the way Liberty restructured itself into three tracking stocks they have at least done share swaps. That combined with Malone, in a media based, PR based, reputation based industry and a strategy of acquisitions/mergers, would probably prefer not to cancel Worldspace shares, even if it cost him a little more because then future deals would have that stigma hanging over them. You have to figure that when dealing heavily with the finance crowd you don't want a reputation of canceling shares.
In other words, if I rely heavily on the UBS type of crowd in running my empire then I don't want to have a reputation of potentially hurting the UBS type of crowd, even if that costs me a little more now.
From all that I see a worst case possibility of ending up with a swap to Liberty shares IF they fully acquire Worldspace.
5. Ultimately my current strategy is to have a starter position (which I finally got today) and then keep some money on the side and watch closely. When something happens that makes it jump then buy more immediately. This way, with the starter position, I don't miss a run and can (hopefully) buy more from a lower level, depending on where it drifts to between now and a jump.
Again, just IMO!!!!
As a side note, I'm really liking this board. Lot's of good info. intelligent people, no agendas etc. As you can see from my posting history I rarely post, and that's because of all the 'stuff' (agendas) present on many boards.