Replies to post #185005 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[Krombacher]

Nevertheless, if I use my model for the probability of oil, and our second guessing is leading to either a "gusher" or a "maybe" but not a "bust" then our probability of finding oil should no longer be 30% as is implied by the market.

Let me put it this way, a bust = 0%, a maybe = 50% and a gusher = 100% probability. A maybe/sure thing probability is therefore more than 50% but less than 100%.

That means that our probability of finding oil, a lot of it, in block 4 alone, must be on average about 75%.

That second guessing alone takes the share price to approx. $1.85 based on my model with a 75% chance of finding the oil that we want as the input to the model. Even a risk-averse individual must find the current risk/reward ratio given the current share price to be compelling.

Krombacher

[RUBY1100]

Schrull indicated a few months back Malanza and Kina South would be the 3rd and 4th DP wells drilled

dont have a link - he said it at Capital Markets Day I recall

[Jim Long]

Krom,

Feedback! It makes sense and follows a logical path, even with the variables. Thanks.

Even if Schrull laid out a prior drilling plan, the purchase of Addax by Sinopec certainly left that Plan "A" to be blessed by Sinopec. Not knowing the basis upon which Plan A was developed, I am inclined to believe it contained the very weighted factors you laid out. If the "what ifs" (weighted factors) changed then the plan would most likely have changed to Plan B, which to my knowledge, was never revealed.

Again, thanks for this post and your follow up one to it.

Jim

[oil-cowboy]

I'll have what your smokin' bud. Relax, have a tic tac. Talk about over analyzing. Like Mark, I'll pick #2.

[colowyo]

Krom how 'bout they in early stages of planning next drill program rather than speculating/ - # of drillships, capitolation of time contract to be in force, where's best appraisal field to begin field development?