Doh! ... if the decisions to drill the sites Malanza and Kina South were predetermined, then we can't second guess, since the decision to drill Malanza was not predicated on the results of Kina.
Therefore, the probability theory will not apply, but neither will Walldog's assertion that they found oil in Kina.
In fact, one can only second guess the opposite, that their plans did not change because of some anomaly, i.e. there was no huge discovery. If the discovery was huge, then they surely would've changed their plans.
Hence, it's probably not a fantastic find. So Ruby, I hope you are wrong about the decision being predetermined, or we will remain range bound in the 50's and 60's for a bit longer.
Krombacher
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