Replies to post #30974 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[AIMster]

Hi, Ray,

Got a total knee replacement. Quite an experience for this old man. Thank goodness I have a great wife who keeps up with when I am supposed take my next med and tells me when my next doctor appointment is.

Best wishes for a speedy recovery! Put your best foot forward, as it were! I've done the same for my wife when she's had cataract surgery, both eyes done now! Nice to have somebody there for backup and to keep us on course!

I finally broke down and got Praveen Puri's book and have been working the FAS/FAZ 3x pair for a few weeks using his basic idea of constant value investing. Working like a core position system, really as I'm working the additional amounts invested as they go down by selling them when they go back up. Started small with about $1k in each - no point in getting too carried away to start with! Been paying off pretty well, though not much in absolute $ gain, but enough to where I think it might work as a process with this investing idea. Thus one can hold the core part long term and just use the daily "noise" to make the money with. An idea, anyway.

Best,

AIMster

[lifo]

Hello Ray, ...2x Bear ETF, P&F Charts, etc.

It must be quite an experience indeed, getting a total knee replacement. Hope your recovery goes very well.

In the past, I only looked briefly at P&F Charts; so, I don't have enough background to use them profitably at this time.

My recent experience with the 2x Bear ETF was instructive. Psychologically, it seemed a bit contradictory from the perspective that, in order to make a dollar with the 2x Bear ETF, my existing long positions had to experience a downdraft, in the short term anyway.

I'll see how it goes from here. For me, short-term trading is a harder way to make money than the AIM-like method that I use with stocks. However, when there doesn't seem to be very good buys in stocks, then the 2x bear ETF looks appealing to me.

Best regards,

Jack

[ls7550]

Wishing you a quick and comfortable recovery Ray.

Would like to point out, before some one else points it out to me, that using volatile investments, such as 2X and 3X ETFs, stop-loss orders, etc. for short-term trading is not the way that one should AIM their investments

Here's a concept to have a play with whilst your less mobile Ray.

Overlay Mebane's timing model on top of AIM. That is review AIM monthly whenever the current price is above the 10 month simple moving average. Whenever the price is below the 10 month simple moving average at the review date then sell out of the stock and stop any subsequent AIM reviews, but still check monthly to see if the current price is greater than the 10 month simple moving average and restart AIM'ing once so (buying back previously sold stock - and possibly more if AIM so indicates).

You'll get good results with lower cash-burn (less risk). Typically the ROCAR will rise 1.5 to 2.0 times.

If you use the 2x Bull instead then the ROCAR rises even further to around 3.0 times conventional AIM.

When you plot conventional AIM trades typically you see consecutive buys running down the falling price line. With the Mebane overlay instead you generally don't see buy trades until after the falling price line passes the bottom and has started a rise. Whilst you miss the bottom, you in effect trade a single (or two) larger amount(s) past the bottom, missing much of the down-slide by being in cash, but buying back in once a positive trend is evident.

Best wishes. Clive.

[Firebird400]

Hi Ray,
Best wishes for a speedy recovery. Kind regards, Ken

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Ray, <OT> Your recovery from knee surgery..........

Congratulations on getting it done. I know for a fact that waiting longer than necessary does cut into quality of life. I almost waited far too long with my neck fusions ten years ago. Coulda ended up in a wheelchair wearing a diaper the rest of my life.

Both my neck and my low back surgeries went very well. Both corrected the problems and both added significantly to my quality of life.

In that regard, I hope you mend well and that the new knee does the same for you.

Heal well,
Tom