Replies to post #4472 on Alloy Steel Inc. (fka AYSI)

[gilead23]

I was the one who threw out the 1.20 number

I think what LF points out is relevant in that we should expect better margins going forward from arcoplate and should expect lower SGA as a % of revenue although arcoplate royalties are based on revs so they will certainly grow along with sales.

All of this is still uncertain though and based on intelligent speculation. It makes sense that the new mills would be more productive. It makes sense labor allocation per revenue dollar would be lower. It makes sense pricing power on the thicker plate will be better etc.

I can envision better numbers than 1.20 annualized on 4 mills running full time. 1.20 seems like a good middle ground though that implies fairly high margins and better revenue production from the new mills.

They of course still have to build and operate them and none of us have any idea when or technically if that will happen. What we do know is the future right now looks pretty bright and given the recent announcement the short term numbers will be varying shades of great depending on your assumptions