Here it is Elena, from January 1995. You can see how much more steep the business decline was this time. The ECRI WLI bottom was 3/6 - the market bottom was 3/9. Hows that for accurate forecasting.
ECRI-WLI has been stalled for 3 weeks now, but it's not yet telling us we've reached the top of this rebound.
It's important to remember that none of this rebound has been caused by an organic recovery within the US business system. It's all related to government spending. I'm not trying to be critical or political, just pointing out that whatever recovery we've experienced has come from the government.
It's likely that the impact of the first stimulus bill will be fading in the 4th quarter while the fallout continues to accumulate. More banks are going under, more real estate is going into foreclosure, (commercial/resi prime), unemployment has not peaked...and, well you know the mantra.
The government will need to spend a lot more money to keep the economy on an even keel until business finds it's underpinnings and can take up the slack. Stim II must be coming soon but they might have to see the market cave in first before they take action.
As for BDI, look to China. The Shanghai exchange is down over 22% in about 4 weeks, I guess China doesn't need to import so much stuff. Also, there's a glut of new capesize ships coming online at the wrong time and world trade is down about 15% this year - 15%!
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