Replies to post #82740 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: MELA

MELA – Building on your comments, I find it notable that the plug in today’s Barron’s mentions the test’s specificity but not its sensitivity.

Seasoned biotech investors know that a diagnostic for the general public isn’t worth a dime unless both the sensitivity and the specificity are sky-high.

I am by all accounts a rook when it comes to diagnostics as I really only follow biotechs developing drugs so I'll start with that caveat. But, after reading the article, I got the impression that they were pushing the product just for its ability to accurately rule out a patient having a melanoma and thus spare them from a biopsy. In those cases where it could not be ruled out, a patient would have a biopsy. Inasmuch as most moles do not turn out to be a melanoma, this would presumably significantly cut down on the number of unnecessary biopsies. So, it doesn't seem useless to me from that angle.

Regardless, there's no way I'd invest in this ahead of the FDA decision as this is their only product and a negative ruling would cripple the company.

[apljack]

MELA-Indeed, derm's might use this to push MORE biopsies, rather than fewer, which would end up being a good thing for NGNM's melanoma genetics test coming on line early next year.

aj