Thanks Mike, I would love to read your results. Rotation games can be a headfake to any study. Just trying to rule that out because the study is very insightful.
On the subject of a bear traps & high levels of speculation ( and this is by NO MEANS comparing the two periods but rather giving insightful fact):
After the fall of prices in 1929, a key point is missed by most authors. The devastation (ie: jumping off of buildings/suicide & such) did not happen at the '29 crash. Folks held optimism that things would turn around. When the rise in indexes followed in '30 with a very hopeful retracement accomplished, the sentiment definately bullish. There were many investors who 'climbed the wall of worry' but they are hardly ever written about.
The jumping off of buildings and the nasty consequences of the period happened after the bear trap of '30 slammed down. That was the real deal. That's when bearish sentiment ruled the day. It's also what killed hardcore speculation.
Just making sure that we all keep in mind exactly when the investing public soured on speculation. Until speculators sour, it goes on...
Just my two cents... maybe it will turn into four cents before this all plays out!
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