I'm curious. Why would someone pay $500M for all the equity when the market cap is $30M today? You can have it all for $30M -- plus some premium, I'd imagine, but $470M?
The company has $174M in debt, so you are suggesting that an acquirer would spend in total $674M?
Where did the $500M come from out of curiosity?
So, let's say an acquisition is coming. I have read some posts about it and don't disagree with the logic, while I don't know anything more than you do about it. (Well, in one case I do.) It would need to come soon, since cash burn will consume short-term assets soon.
So what price would the company fetch today? Let's say it's "a whole lot" like your $674M. The major debt holders essentially have a claim on the whole company at this point. Would they not have simply claimed the company last month after the company defaulted, and then receive all of the purchase price?
So they presumably don't think it's worth "a whole lot". Let's even say they think it's more like $50M. They're happy to arrange a sale at, say, $60M. They get $60M (and write off the rest of the debt), instead of $50M they would have if they claimed the company.
But at this valuation, shareholders get nothing, because all debt claims are senior. In fact shareholders basically don't get anything unless it fetches over about $174M. But then if it were worth more than that... back to the above argument, would they not desire to let the company go bankrupt?
I'm not trying to bash. But I do wonder where you think this logic breaks down, since many are talking about investing more as a result.
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