Replies to post #34298 on Drinks Americas Holdings, Ltd. (DKAM)

[LOL]

So basically what you're saying is that even though it's a fact that most of the promises from the shareholder letter haven't occured, the minute the CEO of DKAM makes another prediction, it's all of a sudden based on "forward fact" and not innuendo, hmmmm, since credability plays into this, I would never consider it forward fact and most likely would consider it innuendo, but that's just me. Let's take a look at the filings for proof, because as far as I can tell, since Dre's drinks were supposed to be out in August 08 these "forward facts" have yet to materialize, but hey, it's only been 10 months.LOL.IMO

[duke00324]

...your power to deduce is clouded by what you have at stake here, IMO...

...<<Those that ridicule with no stated position or stake in any future event are far less likely to make any kind of future observation with accuracy.>>...

...unfortunately, for you AND DKAM, posters such as kezzek and I have had FAR better accuracy with our predictions regarding Drinks' future accomplishments / successes to date than you and most other regulars here...YOU PARTICULARLY...

...please spend a few minutes scrolling through my posts and let me know if you can find one where I've been off-track...

...I predicted "Dre's delays" ; urged caution with regard to the "Asian deal", noting that due to the agreement being "non-binding" that the only thing Drinks would get, should the deal fall through, was a declining share price ; predicted continued declines in TV sales, etal...

...predicted that Drinks would NOT be buying LaBatt or Rolling Rock ( I believe you predicted BOTH potential acquisitions would occur)...

...in addition, I've urged longs to consider "taking something off of the table" during the past two or three price spikes, each of which has been promptly followed by selloffs continuing the downtrend which began in February 2007...

...along the way I recognized a tremendous trading opportunity (late February) and loaded up beneath $0.155, selling ALL @ $0.19 and above...

...there's not much you can say to me...or kezzek...Duke...

[Toxic Avenger]

Actually, I think you'll find a neutral, dispassionate observer has the best chance of predicting the future. To extend your weather analogy, think of two people trying to figure out tomorrow's weather. One is getting married in an outdoor ceremony and the other has no plans. It's been raining for 7 days in a row and it's cloudy.
How do you think each will predict? Who do you think is more likely to be right?
By definition, the future is not fact, it's speculation, and the past is not speculation, it's fact, so you can make predictions based on past fact or future speculation. Again, I find that assuming future results will be radically different from past results does not result in optimal forecasting. If the CEO of DKAM came on TV and said he was parting the skies, and he had said it half a dozen times before and each time it rained the next day, I'm afraid I'd still go with rain as my prediction.
"Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it" stills rings very true to me.