Drinks Americas Holdings, Ltd. (DKAM)

[Toxic Avenger]

Actually, I think you'll find a neutral, dispassionate observer has the best chance of predicting the future. To extend your weather analogy, think of two people trying to figure out tomorrow's weather. One is getting married in an outdoor ceremony and the other has no plans. It's been raining for 7 days in a row and it's cloudy.
How do you think each will predict? Who do you think is more likely to be right?
By definition, the future is not fact, it's speculation, and the past is not speculation, it's fact, so you can make predictions based on past fact or future speculation. Again, I find that assuming future results will be radically different from past results does not result in optimal forecasting. If the CEO of DKAM came on TV and said he was parting the skies, and he had said it half a dozen times before and each time it rained the next day, I'm afraid I'd still go with rain as my prediction.
"Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it" stills rings very true to me.