with 5 days left (including today), maybe Vortex2 will manage a catch after all -- at least of a good pounding of their vehicles by giant hail:
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Jun 9, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A 60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN WRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A MOIST AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F EXTENDING NNWWD FROM CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL KS. NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BY 00Z SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY IN CNTRL OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTHWEST...MLCAPE VALUES DROP INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE INTO NW KS. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL JET MAX SHOULD MOVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A VERY FAVORABLE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE SFC-BASED STORMS INITIATE JUST WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT ORGANIZING A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN KS AND DRIVING A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS EWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREATS...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM NRN OK INTO CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING FEEDING INTO SUPERCELLS ONGOING IN THE NRN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND HUTCHINSON KS AT 00Z SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 800 MB AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 500 METERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WITH THIS VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE CORRIDOR WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST FROM HAYS KS EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO MANHATTAN KS AND SWD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED SWD INTO FAR SRN KS AND NRN OK WHERE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE INCREASINGLY INFLUENTIAL. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN KS INTO NW MO AS THE MCS BECOMES WELL-DEVELOPED.
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
KANSAS OKLAHOMA
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MISSOURI FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE...AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...TO MISSOURI BY TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE... COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY FROM KANSAS/OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI.
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. EVENTUALLY...STORM MERGERS AND AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SHOULD LEAD TO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX MAY GO ON TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
full range of continually updated information, including the watches and warnings that will be coming out later today into tonight, available at/via http://www.spc.noaa.gov/