Tornado Alley (PROG)

[F6]

with 5 days left (including today), maybe Vortex2 will manage a catch after all -- at least of a good pounding of their vehicles by giant hail:

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Jun 9, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... 
    SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A 
    60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE 
    SOUTHWEST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS WITH ELEVATED 
    THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN WRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE 
    SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE 
    WAKE OF THE MCS...STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A MOIST 
    AXIS WITH  SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F EXTENDING NNWWD FROM 
    CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL KS. NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS 
    CORRIDOR BY 00Z SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY IN CNTRL OK WITH MLCAPE 
    VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTHWEST...MLCAPE VALUES DROP 
    INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE INTO NW KS. IN ADDITION...THE 
    MID-LEVEL JET MAX SHOULD MOVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE 
    LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR 
    PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS 
    ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A VERY FAVORABLE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT 
    ONCE SFC-BASED STORMS INITIATE JUST WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA 
    IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN 
    AGREEMENT ORGANIZING A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN KS 
    AND DRIVING A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS EWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN MO 
    OVERNIGHT. 
     
    CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREATS...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL 
    INCREASE FROM NRN OK INTO CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING FEEDING 
    INTO SUPERCELLS ONGOING IN THE NRN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. 
    FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND HUTCHINSON KS AT 00Z SHOW IMPRESSIVE 
    LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 800 MB AND 
    0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 
    500 METERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT 
    TRACK EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WITH THIS VERY FAVORABLE 
    ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LONG TRACK 
    SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE 
    CORRIDOR WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST 
    FROM HAYS KS EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO MANHATTAN KS AND SWD 
    ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED SWD INTO 
    FAR SRN KS AND NRN OK WHERE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE INCREASINGLY 
    INFLUENTIAL. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS STRONG INSTABILITY 
    SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE 
    THREAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN KS INTO NW MO AS 
    THE MCS BECOMES WELL-DEVELOPED. 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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Public Severe Weather Outlook

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK   
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
    0505 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009 
     
    ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
    THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... 
     
    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE 
    DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN 
    PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 
     
    THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE 
     
           KANSAS 
           OKLAHOMA 
     
    ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MISSOURI FROM LATER THIS 
    AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. 
     
    A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
    THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST 
    COLORADO TO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL 
    WEATHER DISTURBANCE...AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
    A JET STREAK...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO EARLY 
    THIS MORNING...TO MISSOURI BY TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE... 
    COMBINED WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WILL 
    CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER 
    TODAY FROM KANSAS/OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. 
     
    THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS AREA 
    WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE 
    OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
    EVENING. VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM 
    THESE STORMS. EVENTUALLY...STORM MERGERS AND AN INCREASE IN STORM 
    COVERAGE SHOULD LEAD TO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX 
    MAY GO ON TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT TRACKS EAST 
    ACROSS MISSOURI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 
     
    STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING 
    SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE 
    WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA 
    WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER 
    TODAY.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

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full range of continually updated information, including the watches and warnings that will be coming out later today into tonight, available at/via http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

excellent link to keep up with the latest tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings: http://weather.cod.edu/kamala/svr/

forecast discussion for today/tonight at Stormtrack: http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21028
[Stormtrack home: http://www.stormtrack.org/ -- for current chaser reports from the field later today, look for a new thread there titled "6/09/09 Now" (or similar, key words being "6/09/09" and "Now")]

Live Storm Chase Video Network
(will be active later today)
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase