Replies to post #48680 on Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[Dimension]

Good read elena...i tend to agree with what you posted here and what you sent to me in private. While i agree that the rally can and should continue...i also think when it comes to an end, the the fall is likely to be as quick and powerful. Funadamentally (*gasp*), i feel that we need to return to what started all this...housing price need to return to a level where the average american can afford a mortgage without shenanigans. The question is when does it end?

As i recall, there are major and minor turn dates on a bradley chart...i'd be interested in knowing whether the dates in the article you are referencing are majors?

We had a bradley and gann chart that we used to post periodically here, i will try to find them...as i recall, they were uncanny in their accuracy.

[n4807g]

my only comment; with all their wisdom and knowledge, facts and figures, the FED saw "green shoots" over a month ago. GDP was predicted at around -4.75 it came in at -6.1.

There is no doubt that business inventories are down and some restocking will take place. But I don't think it will translate into a substantial increase in manufacturing activity. I don't believe the unemployment picture will be any better than projected...10% + by 2010

Peoples income...and buying power continues to erode. No more "piggy banks" to squeeze equity from.

The rush to refi will disappear as quickly as it appeared, interest rates will have to rise as those "green shoots" grow. Never mind that oil has remaind stubbornly high in price, even as storage farms overflow.

Having said all that the market could add another 20%. That's what WS insiders want. They probably also want the 30-40% correction because they'll be the first out at the top and you'll know it if the news flow suddenly turns decidedly bad.

The good news; 4th quarter earnings comps will be a cake walk. If the Bull market hasn't resumed by then I'll be surprised. In my opinion that will be the real start.

[n4807g]

And then there's this news:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosure-starts-jump-in-cnnm-15086408.html?sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

Even though the government is doing virtually everything short of forgiving mortgages people are still being foreclosed on at an accelerating rate.

In short; we're using a very large amount of wallpaper to dress up this mess. You can't build a good foundation with wallpaper.