Replies to post #76840 on Biotech Values

[p3analyze]

>>1. It will take several years at least for Provenge to attain the sales that Erbitux is generating (if it ever does).<<

What's Lilly's share of US revenue? In the absence of lung or additional CRC approval, what's the peak sale number that belongs to lilly?

Suppose DNDN can attain peak sale of 900 million dollars (=30000 HRPC patients x $30k /pt), and that it takes 5-year to achieve that, what kind of discount and valuation model should one use, and how should DNDN's market cap compare with say IMCL, ELN or AMLN, when they were on the eve of FDA approval?

>>2. DNDN does not have anywhere near as robust a pipeline as IMCL had at the time of the buyout by LLY<<
Granted prostate cancer is the second most immunogenic cancer, next to melanoma, the company did have early signal of efficacy on Neuvenge. Wouldn't the market potential on that beat the fully humanized erbitux, and the distant insulin growth factor antibody?

[steveporsche]

DNDN - On the otherhand BMS was partnered with IMCL back in 2001 so profits are split with them. It was a balance back then on accelerating the pipeline vs. exclusive US profits. Hopefully, in the long run, the valuation of the stock is something else you are a bit off on with regards to DNDN.

<<Collaborations with Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

On September 19, 2001, we entered into an acquisition agreement (the "Acquisition Agreement") with BMS and Bristol-Myers Squibb Biologics Company, a Delaware corporation (BMS Biologics), which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of BMS, providing for the tender offer by BMS Biologics to purchase up to 14,392,003 shares of our common stock for $70.00 per share, net to the seller in cash. In connection with the Acquisition Agreement, we entered into a stockholder agreement with BMS and BMS Biologics, dated as of September 19, 2001 (the "Stockholder Agreement"), pursuant to which all parties agreed to various arrangements regarding the respective rights and obligations of each party with respect to, among other things, the ownership of shares of our common stock by BMS and BMS Biologics. Concurrent with the execution of the Acquisition Agreement and the Stockholder Agreement, we entered into a commercial agreement (the "Commercial Agreement") with BMS and E.R. Squibb relating to ERBITUX, pursuant to which, among other things, BMS and E.R. Squibb are co-developing and co-promoting ERBITUX in the U.S. and Canada with us, and are co-developing and co-promoting ERBITUX in Japan with us and either together or co-exclusively with Merck KGaA.

On March 5, 2002, we amended the Commercial Agreement with E.R. Squibb and BMS. The amendment changed certain economics of the Commercial Agreement and expanded the clinical and strategic roles of BMS in the ERBITUX development program. One of the principal economic changes to the Commercial Agreement was that we received payments of $140.0 million on March 7, 2002, and $60.0 million on March 5, 2003. Such payments were in lieu of the $300.0 million milestone payment we would have received upon acceptance by the FDA of the ERBITUX BLA under the original terms of the Commercial Agreement.

On July 27, 2007, the Company and BMS amended the terms of their commercial agreement for the co-development and co-promotion of ERBITUX in the U.S. and Canada (the "BMS Amendment"). Under the BMS Amendment, the companies have jointly agreed to expand the investment in the ongoing clinical development plan for ERBITUX. With this additional funding, the companies will further explore the use of ERBITUX in additional tumor types including brain, breast, bladder, esophageal, gastric, lung, pancreas and prostate.

Under the BMS Amendment, ERBITUX clinical development and other costs, up to threshold amounts, are the sole responsibility of BMS, with costs in excess of the thresholds shared by both companies according to a predetermined ratio effective January 1, 2007. The terms of the Commercial Agreement, as amended on July 27, 2007, are set forth in more detail below. <<