>>1. It will take several years at least for Provenge to attain the sales that Erbitux is generating (if it ever does).<<
What's Lilly's share of US revenue? In the absence of lung or additional CRC approval, what's the peak sale number that belongs to lilly?
Suppose DNDN can attain peak sale of 900 million dollars (=30000 HRPC patients x $30k /pt), and that it takes 5-year to achieve that, what kind of discount and valuation model should one use, and how should DNDN's market cap compare with say IMCL, ELN or AMLN, when they were on the eve of FDA approval?
>>2. DNDN does not have anywhere near as robust a pipeline as IMCL had at the time of the buyout by LLY<<
Granted prostate cancer is the second most immunogenic cancer, next to melanoma, the company did have early signal of efficacy on Neuvenge. Wouldn't the market potential on that beat the fully humanized erbitux, and the distant insulin growth factor antibody?
