Replies to post #157327 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[littleBitmoore1]

thanks for sharing this, Mark ! A part cash, part share swap would suit me just fine at a good price.

lbm1

[exceo]

Thanks Mark. Would sure mean a lot to this old man.

Happy Easter to you and yours.

[bayfisherii]

Mark,

When you say deal, are you inferring to a buy-out?

Bayfisher

[RKT989]

thanks Mark..Reliable and encouraging news is always welcome

[ccy]

Thank you for sharing the information.

That might explain why the stock price has been stuck in a narrow range recently. In a merger/acquisition deal, the investment banker would issue a fair-value assessment based upon, among other things, the average stock price of the most recent 30(?) days. In other words, some one might want to keep the stock price at this level in order to justify an offering price later. Just a thought...

[kobiashi2000]

Thanks for sharing Mark.

[Bigfish]

Thanks Mark. I put a lot of stock in your news

[RKT989]

and we know that Jeff Schrull(OBO 1) and Addax KNOW what is really down there..
The DPathfinder is oil that is greasing this deal (if it happens)because in business terms..Time is short

[ac hotfries]

Thanks Mark,

Just for the record, I am assuming that your source is NOT Oily.

-ach

[Fishdog]

This shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, frankly. It only stands to reason that Addax would want to acquire ERHC. Of course they are talking. But what would be the catalyst to driving the completion of a deal? Drilling, of course, which gets closer everyday now.

The good news is that Kina is going to be drilled first. The best prospect in the JDZ. It may come down to the Deepwater Pathfinder setting up on location before a deal is finalized - or discarded. Hardball is being played here because everyone expects Kina to be the key unlocking King Solomon's Mine.

ERHC is threatening to grow into an actual company through acquisition(s). Not what Addax wants to see, so this is also pressure that is forcing Gandur's hand. Perhaps one reason why ERHC has not actually grown as yet. After all, mngmt HAS passed on at least a couple of acquisitions which would have been really good deals. There is an intense game of Chess going on behind the scenes - don't be fooled by the silence.

One other thing ... we are way undervalued today. Take some time and search your couches and chairs for loose change.

[gasman48]

What??? What??? are you lining up with oily??? seriously thanx for the effort it only makes sense for addax to at least take a share of erhe with an option to complete the deal

[Jim Long]

Mark, Great news!! If this bird takes flight from the nest as quickly as the previous one then we will have something concrete in 30 days (from 02/05/09 until 03/05/09 was the timeframe relative to the Pathfinder). Do you anticipate that the JDA or Upstream will again be able to provide some guidance relative to the ongoing status? After all if they are willing to speak then we are willing to listen.

Thanks for all your efforts,
Jim Long

[Opus X]

As Always, Your Time and Effort are Appreciated.

"The AXC buys ERHE and then Chinese buy AXC" scenario still seems most viable to me. Hopefully we still get some upside in this possible deal.

Gracias,

Opus X

[brez63]

Thanks brah, you rock! **

Brez

[Homeport]

If it's the same source as you had for the DP, Mark, he/she must be taken seriously. But I must admit I'd be surprised - and disappointed - over a pre-drill deal for ERHC.

In any event, a tip of the hat for sharing your DD.

Thanks,
HP

[oil-cowboy]

Merger please....! Thnks Mark

[Phiegze]

Ok Mark - tells us the truth..

..is Oliphant you source? ;-)

[Digdeepforsweet]

markgovols remember this REPOST;

by: balance_builder Date: Saturday, January 03, 2009 10:41:56 AM
In reply to: None Post # of 3051

How would YOU vote if Oilphant is correct and we are looking a $3.75'sh buyout in the face?????

What he has going for him in this scenario is company managment stating they are no longer sure if they're going to follow up on their "grow the company" business plan (reference: ERHC 12/16/06 CC).

Please recall Peter Ntephe's out of the blue comment when ERHC questioned their own acting CEO about ERHC being acquired and he stated in part,



"We have a definite growth strategy, but having said that, we are in a business. If someone was to make an offer that had a substantial premium, we would consider selling. But our plans are to grow this company and to enhance shareholder value."
http://www.erhc.com/en/rel/?122


Now ERHC (and especially Dan Keeney) is stating they don't know if they (ERHC) will follow thru on their stated and re-stated growth strategy due to the credit crunch affecting acquisition funding potential. "Headfake" was intitially suggested when ERHC initially stated their plan to "grow the company"???

I am, however, noting that Dan Keeney has repeatably stated to me that guidance remains unchanged in terms of growing the company....but that this guidance it is subject to change due primarily to the credit crunch.


So, if plans to grow the company are dismissed.....would they then take an offer at a substantial premium into consideration?


Bring in Oilphant. I have put together a series of his fairly recent comments. Note that he became very negative toward ERHC after David Bovell's $10 comment. He claimed ERHC would never see this figure......and further stated that the $3.75 "ERHC deal" would be a buyout. More after you look at some of his recent posts:


9-8-08 Oily said:
"Todays ERHC news is a diversion.
ERHC sell price is to high."


10-7-08 Oily pushing a deal to go thru:
"One must ask one's self, how much JDZ profit is there for ERHC with an oil price of $45\bbl?
Beware of the coming Oil price drop shock."

10-7-08 Oil again pushing deal to get done:
"ERHC deal will be done before the two DS's get to the JDZ."

10-9-08 Oily pushing that oil price drop will get deal finalized:
"Oil @ $45\bbl, the wait will not be long, ERHC will flinch."

10-10-08 Oily again pushing for a deal to get approved based on falling oil prices:
"So has anyone run the numbers on how much JDZ profit is there for ERHC with an oil price of $45\bbl?
RTQ= $77.90\bbl -8.69"

11-3-08 Oily suggests SINOPEC (IMHO) is the buyer:
"Who wants ERHC's right's of oil? only the S_ _ _ _ _ _ knows!"

11-6-08 Oily indicating buyer is mad and will keep ERHC from making acquisitions by dropping the co's sp?
"I hear chatter, ERHC management Mismanages, stock goes south, not my fault."

11-6-08 Oily continuing to question profit for ERHC with falling oil price:
"One must ask one's self, how much JDZ profit is there for ERHC with an oil price of $45\bbl?"

11-6-08 Oily mad that ERHC won't accept deal he's pushing following D. Bovells $10 comment during the RedChip presentation?
"Sometimes a ship must take on water to flush the rats overboard!"

11-7-08 Oily suggesting ERHC attach itself to co X or face serious troubles? Response to Bovells CC of $10 selling for SEO:
"ERHC is surrounded by sharks, take scraps like a remora or get eaten. Bovell 20081105."

11-20-08 Oily gets wind of ERHC carrying thru on their acquisition growth plan?
"Chatter: How clean is SEO? ERHC better hope he's...

(editor note: picture of "Mr. Clean" in his original post)

It's not ERHC's money burn rate you need worry about, it's what their planning on doing with it you should be worried about.

First it was oils drop to the $40's, now it's ERHC bought what!
That's manure!"

12-4-08 Oily further threatens to assist sp in going down:
"chatter: JDZ drilling delay 1 Q 2010"

12-8-08 Oily answers lots of questions. Suggests buyout of ERHC at $3.75 based on the falling oil prices. Co now rethinking their strategy?
"BB:
1. Is XOM the player with the $3.75 deal out there? chatter was pointing that way.

2. IYO, will SEO/ERHC bite on the $3.75 deal? oil gets to $29\bbl deal at $45\bbl hindsight will sting.

3. IYO, is the $3.75 deal a buyin or buyout deal? BO

4. Which JDZ block gets drilled first? Block 3

5. Belford Dolphin the ship to do the drilling? yes

6. Why such a beat down sp on such light volume IYO? Powers that be want ERHC to leave

7. Will the new reserves report get the ball rolling in terms of sp? no

8. IYO, is ERHC serious about adding assets or is this a ploy to get a buyer to up the ante to an SEO acceptable price? no

12-9-08 Oily suggests deal is still being worked on:
"dougc:chatter was news on 20081205. Chatter is still going, something big is in the works."

12-9-08 Oily confident that ERHC will be sold for around $4:
"tryoty: The only way ERHC sees $10\sh is through an RS or price inflation in the year 2089. ERHC will be eaten for <$4\sh"

12-12-08 Oily saying no deal made yet...sp will continue to fall as a result:
"ERHC closes below $.12 nothing has changed."

12-16-08 Oily continues to threaten if ERHC doesn't accept deal:
"BB:@$.07 they'll RS"

12-18-08 Oily makes a turn and now starts to buy ERHC just days after the ERHC CC indicates they are rethinking their strategy?:
"Should I buy with smaller blocks or bigger?"

12-29-08 Oily indicates ERHC "flinched"?:
"Chatter: ERHC deal is back on."



Take the above for what it is. If....if.....there's any life in it, I would put these suitors in their respective "potential" order for being the buyer of ERHC:

1. Addax
2. Sinopec
3. ExxonMobil
4. Korean National Oil Company
5. WB and Islamic Bank
6. Chevron


I know there are quite a few on board who strongly believe SEO is going to wait for his stated $10....which obviously doesn't come about til drilling proves up at least some of the prospects. But what if.....the price of oil.....coupled with the credit crunch.....ruined any ERHC plans of growing the company and Oilphant is correct.....and an entity offers SEO $3.75 lock stock and barrel......

Would you gladly accept?

There are some odd issues ongoing that lead to the possibility that somebody does want ERHC gone from view. The elusive drill ship.....the stated, then re-stated and re-stated again business plan to grow the company.....is NOW under consideration to be changed.....Peters out of the blue quip about ERHC considering an offer at a substantial premium.....

I fully admit that I am one of very few active posters that still give Oilphant any merit for his views. Overviewing the entire ERHC picture......and knowing that ERHC has been forecasting making acquisitions for mulitple YEARS (yes, well before Ledbetter hired on in 12/06 and David Bovell in early 07)they have put to print their acquisition talk. Recall that they did the same with the hiring of CEO/CFO....talking about how they were narrowing down the very good list of candidates etc...etc....all headfake to shareholders.

Assets. All about assets to this investor. So once again....how would YOU, as a shareholder, entertain a buyout of Oilphants $3.75 per share?

Yea or Nay??

[walldog0]

Good stuff Mark, thanks........em