In retrospect your analysis was spot-on and very predictive of how AMD stock would behave six months ago. I didn't think it was off-topic then but intriguing and events have proven that more so. I have been accused of being purely tech-orientated now it seems you are being accused of being macro-stock orientated when both will ultimately affect the stock price of the company under scrutiny on this board. IMO the current stock price represents a perfect buying opportunity for AMD for the next six months as I fully expect Q404 results to be good enough to kick the price near $20 even in this bear market. In summation it seems that posts that are not of the cheerleader kind seem to unnerve certain members of this board who maybe need and want to be constantly reassured of the wiseness and validity of their investment. Reality is the better option.
I'm thinkin AMD will go up $4-5 a share after earnings in the third quarter...but then again if they post all kinds of new costs the stock could go to $10 a share...so maybe short the stock and buy more calls above as they may be quite cheap...I think that is the only way to play this stock...
Many people look forward to the back-to-school season because it means their kids finally will be out of their hair after the long summer vacation. However, PC and DRAM makers love back-to-school time for another reason: it's a peak sales season for their products as students and parents buy new computers for the new school year.
However, in a troubling sign for both industries, there's no indication of a back-to-school-driven pickup in sales yet, although this is the time of the year when such demand typically starts to appear. Furthermore, early indications are that PC demand will not increase in August, with computer makers not seeing signs of increasing orders for next month.
This is a major concern for leading PC OEMs Dell Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co., since their fiscal quarter ends in July and they count on the back-to-school sales surge to boost their results. It's also a major concern for the DRAM suppliers, who are facing weaker-than-normal demand during a period of increasing production, paving the way for further potential price weakness. -------------------------------------
Add to that INTEL´s very aggressive moves on the flash market (about 50% of AMD´s business), INTEL´s rising inventories in CPUs and flash and the market expectations that go along with that, and you should get the picture: An analyst called AMD the semiconductor company with the biggest risk to EPS in the known universe. And I´m sure he has a point, to a certain degree. Single digits? Why not? In the current climate, everything is possible. As usual, company specific and industry specific factors, along with overall market sentiment determine the trend of the stock price.
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