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Monday, July 26, 2004 10:57:23 AM
Well, I know why that is.
These articles should give you an indication:
Foundry orders cut
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=17424
Where's the back-to-school demand?
http://www.siliconstrategies.com/article/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=25600013&_requestid=226137
Many people look forward to the back-to-school season because it means their kids finally will be out of their hair after the long summer vacation. However, PC and DRAM makers love back-to-school time for another reason: it's a peak sales season for their products as students and parents buy new computers for the new school year.
However, in a troubling sign for both industries, there's no indication of a back-to-school-driven pickup in sales yet, although this is the time of the year when such demand typically starts to appear. Furthermore, early indications are that PC demand will not increase in August, with computer makers not seeing signs of increasing orders for next month.
This is a major concern for leading PC OEMs Dell Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co., since their fiscal quarter ends in July and they count on the back-to-school sales surge to boost their results. It's also a major concern for the DRAM suppliers, who are facing weaker-than-normal demand during a period of increasing production, paving the way for further potential price weakness.
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Add to that INTEL´s very aggressive moves on the flash market (about 50% of AMD´s business), INTEL´s rising inventories in CPUs and flash and the market expectations that go along with that, and you should get the picture: An analyst called AMD the semiconductor company with the biggest risk to EPS in the known universe. And I´m sure he has a point, to a certain degree. Single digits? Why not? In the current climate, everything is possible. As usual, company specific and industry specific factors, along with overall market sentiment determine the trend of the stock price.
Keith
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