Yes, I left a lot off the table, the upcoming election is an unknown but a factor in some company spending habits, and it’s the possible policy change that’s the factor. I did mention the terror concerns, that’s huge, but if I read you correctly “disillusionment with Iraq” meaning to me the on going strain, I think that’s been factored by the street. I.e. if you’re invested with Starbucks, or best buy or maybe Amgen it’s not the driving force to your investment. However all that aside and to you’re point ya, it would be nice to clean it up.
A few others I suppose, the dollar, import/export factors, employment factor, i.e. lose 12 million jobs hired back 2 million call it a victory? That’s turning more to a overseas issue as that’s where many of the new jobs are being created, India is huge in this area but helps from a investor only view as it adds to the bottom line, just subtracts from the American work force.
The original focus was on the NAS issue and support , my thoughts have been on the fact on the NAS being overweighed on tech companies and being in a cycle, however while this is certainly leading the drop the other markets ,sectors are chiming in and are also near their major support marks as well.
Much more to think about for me In some ways were passing the logic areas and moving into the fear and greed areas. I never had a good handle on the fear and greed issues. Fear = not willing to buy a 100 dollar bill for 50 bucks- Greed = paying 150 for 100 dollar bill and smiling about it. I.e. I have 6 companies that I’m invested in that the cash on hand per share is greater than the share price, many more that are under book value, and they are still dropping like a rock. Not huge volume on these either, just enough fear and too few buyers.
From the logic side of things there is some factor to the fear. Everybody wants to get back the way things were. And by historical marks it should. If so then the S and P needs to drop another 25 percent from a p/e point of view or earning need to rise 33 percent more. From a longer term point of view then many smaller companies or some larger ones in all sectors need to close the doors. Were not at this sink or swim area yet but from historical guidelines, it’s coming. Two examples. 1830’s “hard times” 90 percent of all business went out of business. 1930’s “the great depression” I don’t think I need to expand on that one other than to sat it wasn’t the crash of 29 that was the problem. That could have been recovered from, no it was the continued fall into the 30’s {90percent}. I guess cause and effect. Also of note the 1890’s and 1970’s. Not saying that’s what is happening here, but the mixture and theme of cause and effect can be viewed at smaller levels to gain a degree of view that would normally be missed.
I'm very aware of all above and I’m not seeing it here, sure you have a mini bubble, I agree, yes we have a rollover occurring, no problem it’s there. My disagreement with the people on the other side of the fence so to speak is continuance. Yes there are many many issues out there to factor but the end results can not be plugged in as all bad, and if they can’t then we are open to other views ,changed solution patterns would lead to changed solution programs and so on. Bottom line doesn’t matter if you use the super K, 30 years cycle, Dow theory or whatever else you favor, if your looking at the down side to the degree mentioned you currently don’t have enough support, not yet anyway, sure you can point out this ,this and that but you can’t be assured that your view will have that end result.
As a foot note we have 139 S&P companies next week rolling out their qt reports. We won’t have long at least to get a overall feel for direction
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