Replies to post #40361 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[upc]

Most of AMD's sales are international. And I'm sorry, but did you say AMD and Intel have "seen a lot stock appreciation" ??? You may be holding your chart upside down. :)

Shorter beware.

upc

[jhalada]

sgolds,

I thought the lack of job recovery was yesterday Kerry talking point. Someone must have not gotten the memo.

As far as tech stocks, the debacle of the bubble and its effects will not be repeated for a very long time, may be a decade. If that is your benchmark, you will continue to be disappointed for a long time.

This means that the tech spending by corporations will continue to be under scrutiny. There, however, may be valid reason for the next upgrade cycle. NX and 64 bit seem to me like valid reasons to upgrade, but that upgrade may not take place until 2005, until it is somewhat digested by the IT folks and Intel finally has it figured out as well.

They anticipated a stronger overall economy than we are seeing, they got ahead of themselves.

I see. I guess the 4.7% forecasted growth in the economy for 2004, the highest in 2 decades is not strong enough.
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/index.php?page=business&story_id=070704d1_economy

It could just be that the stock prices we are seeing now are consistent with a healthy, growing global economy, and prices for recession periods will be lower. I rember a study (I don't have a link) at the top of the bubble. Some researchers went through the companies in the Nasdaq index, their earning reports, and they stripped away all the BS down to solid earnings. They applied a historical model and came up with fair value of Nasdaq at hight of the bubble of some 1500. We went below that eventually, as more sane valuations prevailed, and now we are at 1900.

If you think that current state is somehow disappointing, tell me how fast should the economy grow (beyond 4.7%) and what the proper Nasdaq valuation (tech stock proxy) should correspond to that level.

I think the idea going forward is to be in the right companies that are outperforming their peers (which I hope AMD is one of).

Joe

[SilentBob]

The facts it presents are not in dispute

Sorry Sgolds, I have to disagree. Only this week...Greenspan also repeated there was no evidence to buttress arguments that new jobs being created in the United States were lower-paying than the jobs that had been lost. "We've not been able to find a significantly meaningful change in the quality of the jobs being produced relative to the quality of the jobs being lost for the nation as a whole over the past year," he said. Obviously there is some dispute, if not with the specific facts, then certainly with the conclusions that dominated the article you posted.

I found Greenspan's testimony to Congress this week to be very optimistic for Alan. I also consider Greenspan to be reasonably apolitical, having served with praise under administrations from both parties. I certainly hold his testimony in higher regard than reports by any private analyst or commentator because I have no clue as to their motives.

I find your posting of this article under the guise of "macro economics" a thinly veiled political statement not appropriate for this board. Your post simply invites a detour into a Democrat/Republican debate. This is my first and last posting on this topic.

I do not disagree with your premise that tech stock investors may have anticipated the recovery to follow more traditional patterns and have suffered some disappointment. As to your previously stated belief that we enjoyed a minor bull in a longer term bear, I am more optimistic. Only time will tell who if you are right on that call.

Best wishes to you in your investing.