Hi Clive, Re: average of Interest Rate minus Median Dividend....
I checked on the data I have and since the beginning of 1995, the average of the I-MD = +1.88. It's currently showing -3.17.
The top 10% of the data starts at +3.8 and the bottom 10% is below -0.85. So, at this point the minus 3.17 reading is quite deep into the bottom 10% of the database. In 2000 we had a long string of >3.8 indicating severe bearishness but we did not get to the 90th Percentile since then. Before that there was a period of bearishness in April of 1998.
No bullish signals (bottom 10th percentile) were seen until November of 2002 but the bullishness stayed until the end of October of 2003. Bullishness returned once again at the end of September of 2008 as a consistent signal and it has remained so consistently ever since.
Interesting stuff.
Best regards, Tom
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