As might reasonably be expected, when you don't mess with the taxation of dividends, then over the longer term you typically see a more consistent correlation between stock prices and dividend values (this chart uses dividend yield * index = dividend value).
On the basis that dividend values rise in proportion to stock prices, but with dividend values tending to be somewhat smoothed with companies being under pressure to maintain/grow dividends (borrowing during the bad times to maintain dividends and then repaying those debts during better times), then dividend yield becomes a good proxy for relative stock price.
If anything, the low levels around the earlier part of
maybe a reflection of "we've had the good times and run up big debts - now it's low benefits for a while until we repay those debts".
The earlier part of that chart had incomes from cash and stock both at around 5%.
Here's a historical AIM reference for such a sideways ranging type period which show capital benefits (losses) only. Add on 4 or 5% income and total benefits are 3-4% for B&H versus perhaps 6 or 7% for AIM'ers.
and a table from crestmont research
which I transformed a couple of years or so again for my personal reference into
and a couple of other references which both show a sideways/bear having started in around 2000
I hope you're right with the VL based predictions Tom. Personally I'm less confident and trying to be a good scout by being prepared for alternative scenario's (geared towards a period of sideways trading action with low capital gains, mainly income only under buy and hold conditions but likely improved upon under AIM via some stock price volatility capture benefits).
President Obama, PM Brown et al could be playing a counter to that of King Canute, trying to keep the high surf waves rolling and party going by throwing $Trillions when the tide is rolling out.
One good element is that if a Bear did start in 2000 and my predictions of a end date of 2014/15 in the 4th image above turn out to be correct, then for many from the current date the Bear will seem a lot shorter than might otherwise have been the case.
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