Replies to post #120 on AIM UK

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi Clive, Re: Peaks and Troughs.........................

Maybe we can coin a new phrase relative to Mountain Goats and Pigs!
We could include some catch phrase like it's "Baaaaaad" to be buying
with the Mountain Goats.
:-)

Unfortunately, this is exactly what we're seeing happen in the real
world with each cycle. The herds of goats charge the mountain to
eat where the grass is the most sparse. Then when disappointed, they
return to fertilize the valleys.

I have many years of Dividend history for hte Value Line 1700 group.
I'll package it up in spreadsheet form and email it to you along
with the VL estimated P/E and a market index or so. It tells
exactly the same story you describe. Yields high, relative
prices low. Yields low, relative prices high.

We've been wallowing here in the troughs for some time now. Earnings
reports (for companies smart enough to actually have earnings) are
coming in at reasonable levels. However, if a company missed
"guidance"
by even one penny out of twenty, the stock is crucified. Strange
mentality. Companies with losses, however, get speculated because
they might return to earning money. Again, strange mentality.

Norman Fosback's tome of investing still provides lots of insight
to investor mentality just in the title: "Stock Market Logic."

Obviously an oxymoron!!!

Best regards, Tom