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ChrisC_R

07/16/04 11:20 AM

#40063 RE: sgolds #40062

Good 2nd half prospects? Place your bets now:

"PC Shipments Increase as Rebound Continues

By GARY MCWILLIAMS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
July 16, 2004; Page A10

Strong demand for personal computers in Europe and replacement purchases by U.S. corporate customers boosted PC shipments by at least 13% and possibly by more than 15% in the second quarter, according to estimates by two market-research firms.

The reports suggest the PC rebound that began last year still has room to run, as replacement purchases by businesses and sales in Europe and Asia benefit from continued price declines.

According to International Data Corp., world-wide shipments in the quarter ended June 30 rose 15.5% from a year earlier, to 39.7 million units. The U.S., Europe and Asia each had gains of more than 10%, IDC said.

"There should be solid, double-digit growth in the second half" of this year, said Loren Loverde, an analyst at IDC. The rise of the euro against the dollar and sharp price drops have contributed to strong demand across Europe for better than a year, he said.


Separately, Gartner Inc. said it believes world-wide shipments rose 13.3% to 42.8 million units from 37.8 million a year earlier. "We continue to see replacements being a major factor," said Charles Smulders, a Gartner vice president.

The two companies' numbers often differ slightly because they use different methods to calculate shipments.

Both researchers said Dell Inc. remained the world's largest PC seller and increased its lead over second-place rival Hewlett-Packard Co. Gartner put Dell's share of the world-wide market at 16.5%, up from 15.3% a year earlier. H-P's share rose to 14.3% from 14% a year ago, the researcher said. International Business Machines Corp. held onto third place world-wide, with a 5.9% share, up from 5.7% a year earlier, Gartner said.

Gartner estimated Fujitsu Ltd. and its European Fujitsu-Siemens joint venture was fourth world-wide, with a 3.5% share, while Taiwan's Acer Inc. was fifth, with a 3% share.

In the U.S., shipments rose 10.9% to 13.4 million, according to IDC. While notebook PC sales are growing sharply, desktop PCs have rebounded amid better corporate demand, IDC said. "For the last couple of quarters, we've had a gradual increase in enterprise buying. We think that will continue," Mr. Loverde said.

Dell and H-P remain the top two sellers in the U.S. The battle for third place in the U.S. is between IBM and Gateway Inc., which acquired low-cost PC marketer eMachines Inc. this year."

Write to Gary McWilliams at gary.mcwilliams@wsj.com1


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alan81

07/16/04 11:32 AM

#40065 RE: sgolds #40062

Intel took a big ASP hit, tanking the market.
The word big is a bit subjective, but given that they hit the revenue target, but gross margins are down somewhere between 1% and 2%, out of 60%... I would say "small" rather than big. They also mentioned the asp decline was due to fewer notebook sales made up with more desktop and more "other" stuff.

They also delayed correction of their inventory "problem" by about a quarter. I think it was the surprise and suddenness of the change that caused the stock to tank. The numbers actually changes by just a small amount. I think the concern is more that bad news tends to follow bad news, and good news tends to follow good news. This earnings call was viewed as bad news, so the probability of more bad news is now higher. Much hinges on the next few announcements from Intel.
--Alan
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j3pflynn

07/16/04 11:39 AM

#40066 RE: sgolds #40062

sgolds - re: "
4. What's going on with 90nm? I am most confused on this topic, and it worries me. Crossover has gone from Q4/04 to Q2/05, is that correct? Can someone sort out whether we are talking about starts vs. output, and units vs. revenue?

My overall impressions was that Q2 was a solid quarter and positions AMD well going into the fat part of the year. However, 90nm is still the big question mark. Any clarification on that subject would be appreciated."


re: 4 - Good question - Their CC seemed to only totally muddy the waters!

Agreed on your last paragraph. Market overreacted to an inept presentation.
Paul
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upc

07/16/04 2:11 PM

#40073 RE: sgolds #40062

on #4 the worst that could be said is that 90nm crossover moved from Q4/Q1 to Q2, not Q4 to Q2. Based on the posts on the silicon investor thread, the language is vague, and so it is difficult to know if the previous reference to crossover refered to the same thing as the recent reference. Here I mean starts versus output versus sales.

upc