I won't say names but one poster in particular I personally have very high regard for... His stock picking abilities are generally excellent.
He does a LOT of work and IMO does excellent DD. Lots odf people recognize that.
He knows and understands things more than I do when it comes to details on reporting, financials, etc and has taught me things I didn't know (hey Rawnoc has done that too LOL).
But everyone is going to have misses especially in this market. That's probably all that happened and I'm sure he will find many winners going forward.
For all I know some companies that are under pressure right now, like ALIF, may end up being fine longer term. I couldn't tell you one way or the other.
But one thing I would say is that with a company like that (ALIF) where over half their revs are from only one company (a European one), it BEHOOVES anyone investing much in ALIF to know exactly which company that is for risk control IMO and I have not seen anyone say they knew the name of the customer.
If people know what company that 50%+ revs contributor is and we know that company is financially sound, then it would make me go to the next DD step (after today's rpeort) of finding out why it seems that the one customer didn't pay on a chunk of the the ARs that were apparently (IMO) billed at the end of last Q.
Is there a billing dispute? Is it normal for that customer to be so late in paying, etc...? It just begs more questions that I would want answers to in order to put good money on the line.
As for ZYXI, as far as I can recall it is the only publicly traded company where I declared I would short it if they ended up on a higher exchange (where my broker would allow shorting). They apparently aren't going to make it to that higher exchange just yet and I still have never shorted a public company in my life (never put in the call to the broker to allow for shorting in my acct anyways yet).
They may trade back to $5 because 'earnings are 10 cents a share and their PE based on growth should be 12 going forward' or whatever.
I don't know.
But all I know is if they keep putting out results like they have, I bet they don't stay in existence over the next couple years or get extremely pinched unless they continue to find IMO gullible lenders or have some serious change in their ARs vs revs levels.
I could be way off on ZYXI but geez, the biz model's margins are screaming (to me) for 'too good to be true' and coupled with the AR growth it just seems like something's up to me only.
Totally flying by my seat here and making up the nightmare negative scenario
but what if medicare decides to investigate the company or an insurer does for overbilling (look at the margins compared to industry standards)?
What might be found?
Might the company have to PAY BACK $ if they were found guilty of overbilling (of course this isn't even a matter yet so I am just totally making this up for one way to look at things negatively but the Marquette issue puts this into potential play IMO)?
Where in the world would they get money if they had that nightmare happen where they had to refund payments for overbilling?
They have no cash and owe a lot currently IMO.
How are customers approached in the first place to use their units at such high margin levels?
Worst case, what if the insurers find the company doing something that causes a lawsuit over billing and ties down ARs indefinitely?
Or as mentioned a suit ends up against the comapny and the company ends up owing former customers $ that they collected in the past as 'earnings'?
I know I'm just saying this and not AT ALL saying it will happen.
Just saying I personally hold those kinds of potential fears over a company with margins that extreme and with ARs just constantly outpacing revs growth over time. It just seems to smell a bit to me.
I doubt any of that will be the case and am just throwing it out there as the doomer scenario, but the constant AR growth vs revs has always troubled me as something that may be trouble lurking and people aren't watching for. Regardless of whom it is that owes the $.
Disclaimer: I don't believe any of this will necesarily happen and the company has had strong 'earnings' that has seen the company race to $6 even as the markets tanked.
But IMO the QUALITY of those earnings has been IMO weak all along.
And the balance sheet IMO grows weaker every quarter.
From about $3 million in current liabilities at the end of 2007 year to the doubling of that in the most recent reported Q to almost $6 million in current liabs.
And how much cash do they have to pay that $6 mill in current liabs?
That's one of my points.
I could be totally wrong.
PS- it is easy to be negative in this market so I guess I'm taking the easy chicken's road by bringing up the negatives.
And this is just my speculative opinion.
Good luck.
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